Author Topic: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?  (Read 3793 times)

Tijoe

I am thinking of purchasing more consumables and a few key higher end items during the 11-11 sale because there is a high probability that next year we will have to pay a 20% tariff on all of our imported items in the USA, based on what the new administration has stated they will do.  If this really happens It will make me cut way back on many purchases.  I wont be able to afford a 20% price increase on everything that is imported and that I consume.

Thoughts? 



courdacier

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2024, 10:19:13 AM »
right now everything shipped direct <$800 gets an exemption, so that has to pass first. it's already been submitted to Congress so if it passes, you'll probably pay more even while Biden is still in office. higher Trump tariffs will be on top of that.
like I said in a 11/11 thread, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. we'll be back to shopping for second hand di2 on ebay in no time, sorry //doom

kbernstein

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2024, 10:24:53 AM »
I would out of principle. If it's a standard you know won't be replaced anytime soon, I'd stock up on tubes, mech hangers, cables, cleats, maybe chains... Not against trump in particular, but IMO there will be a point where either aliexpress falls off or gets banned/taxed so bad it's not worth it anymore (I think it already happened in brazil and it will happen in the west eventually)
Same with non perishable pantry if you ask me. If you have the space, it's a nobrainer to havea room full of pasta/toilet paper/other necessities. If it can't go bad, no reason not to stock it

PLA

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2024, 10:42:48 AM »
A room full of pasta because buying cheap crap from aliexpress is no longer viable?
« Last Edit: November 06, 2024, 10:45:20 AM by PLA »
LET'S MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT 2024!

MAGA!

courdacier

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2024, 10:49:47 AM »
A room full of pasta because buying cheap crap from aliexpress is no longer viable?

Maybe Joe will start carrying cheap pasta, win/win. looking forward to his pasta reviews on youtube.

jonathanf2

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2024, 11:16:15 AM »
I'm almost debating buying two framesets, an electronic groupset and maybe some wheels.

How's this going to affect big corporations such as Amazon and Tesla? Tesla is rumored to use a large majority of Chinese made components and then shipped to the US for assembly. So basically it's just the average Joe getting screwed over?

courdacier

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2024, 11:23:34 AM »
I'm almost debating buying two framesets, an electronic groupset and maybe some wheels.

How's this going to affect big corporations such as Amazon and Tesla? Tesla is rumored to use a large majority of Chinese made components and then shipped to the US for assembly. So basically it's just the average Joe getting screwed over?

name one tariff where the average Joe wasn't getting screwed over. it's always about value transfer from consumers to domestic or favored foreign producers

toxin

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2024, 11:25:08 AM »
Of course, that's how it always is, the import cost will just be passed onto you and they'll probably use it as an excuse to raise prices beyond covering the tariff ccosts

kbernstein

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2024, 11:50:19 AM »
A room full of pasta because buying cheap crap from aliexpress is no longer viable?
No i was drawing an unrelated comparison. You should have spare pasta and TP for years because prices can only rise and it won't perish anyway. Apply same logic for bike parts you are certain you will eventually need like chains, cables etc

bremerradkurier

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2024, 03:33:28 PM »
Maybe Hecho en Mexico open mold frames and carbon wheels could become a thing.

jonathanf2

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2024, 08:47:14 PM »
Maybe Hecho en Mexico open mold frames and carbon wheels could become a thing.

I'd totally sport an Especializado frame from Mexico!  ;D

Tijoe

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2024, 11:33:42 PM »
right now everything shipped direct <$800 gets an exemption, so that has to pass first. it's already been submitted to Congress so if it passes, you'll probably pay more even while Biden is still in office. higher Trump tariffs will be on top of that.
like I said in a 11/11 thread, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. we'll be back to shopping for second hand di2 on ebay in no time, sorry //doom
I don't think that this change  will directly affect bicycle parts.   Imports that fall under Section 301, Section 201, or Section 232 trade enforcement actions are the focus of the Biden administration.  (textiles, apparel, solar panels, batteries,  certain chemicals and other restricted items.)

I may spend some time looking at bicycle clothing, and some additional camping gear for 11-11, because clothing, apparel, and textiles of any sort will no longer fall under the minimus exemption.

bremerradkurier

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2024, 09:19:12 AM »
I'd totally sport an Especializado frame from Mexico!  ;D

El Cid Tizona frame would be muy caliente.

Tijoe

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2024, 09:52:17 AM »
El Cid Tizona frame would be muy caliente.

Depends in if, and percentage of a tariff is applied to goods from Mexico and Canada.

Tijoe

Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2024, 10:39:37 AM »
right now everything shipped direct <$800 gets an exemption, so that has to pass first. it's already been submitted to Congress so if it passes, you'll probably pay more even while Biden is still in office. higher Trump tariffs will be on top of that.
like I said in a 11/11 thread, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. we'll be back to shopping for second hand di2 on ebay in no time, sorry //doom

I also want to add that for bicycle parts, taking away the consumer's ability to direct/"close to direct" purchase lower cost items from manufacturers/Aliexpress stores. we are forced to go through 2 additional mark ups that really aren't a value add for the consumer.  Importers and distributors   From my perspective, these extra steps have little value add in our modern distribution system for consumers.   Used to be that distributors actually purchased, and held in inventory, large volumes of consumables that were then distributed to the retailers.  (an outcome of "lean manufacturing")   Now distributors often don't carry any significant inventories.   

There are very few "manufacturers" of bike parts in the USA.  Seems like when any of them become successful they are purchased by one of the "international Big boys" and then their manufacturing is shifted out of the country anyways.   USA distributors and importers like this system because it is easy money for them.  They lobby for exemption from tariffs and duties and get them.  Bicycle industry is less than 0.5% of our GDP, so legislators really don't care about this industry and weather or not bicycles are manufactured outside the USA.  But they blanket legislate and include this industry with others, then at a later date, give exemptions.

Edit:  I might add that "We on Chinertown"  are a very-very-very small percentage of people who build and ride their own bikes.   Most of us are unique when compared to the average consumer.   We love to purchase our own parts, build the bikes and then ride them.   This is a hobby for most of us.   Therefore, we are often penalized some way when we figure out a way to "cut-out the middlemen" to support our hobby.   The large corporations are greedy and want every penny they can squeeze out of us.

2nd edit:   As hobbies go, yes I can survive and ride only one bicycle, but because this is a hobby, I enjoy having many bikes.  If the hobby becomes to expensive relative to my lifestyle, then, yes I can ride "one marked up expensive locally purchased bike" rather then 10 hobby built bicycles.   If the cost to me to support my hobby goes up too much, then I will find a less expensive hobby.  This is one of the consequences of tariffs.  The consumer pays more, but we then make the choice to stop purchasing these items.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2024, 04:09:55 PM by Tijoe »