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Other Resources => After The Ride => Topic started by: Tijoe on November 06, 2024, 10:08:40 AM

Title: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on November 06, 2024, 10:08:40 AM
I am thinking of purchasing more consumables and a few key higher end items during the 11-11 sale because there is a high probability that next year we will have to pay a 20% tariff on all of our imported items in the USA, based on what the new administration has stated they will do.  If this really happens It will make me cut way back on many purchases.  I wont be able to afford a 20% price increase on everything that is imported and that I consume.

Thoughts? 
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: courdacier on November 06, 2024, 10:19:13 AM
right now everything shipped direct <$800 gets an exemption, so that has to pass first. it's already been submitted to Congress so if it passes, you'll probably pay more even while Biden is still in office. higher Trump tariffs will be on top of that.
like I said in a 11/11 thread, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. we'll be back to shopping for second hand di2 on ebay in no time, sorry //doom
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: kbernstein on November 06, 2024, 10:24:53 AM
I would out of principle. If it's a standard you know won't be replaced anytime soon, I'd stock up on tubes, mech hangers, cables, cleats, maybe chains... Not against trump in particular, but IMO there will be a point where either aliexpress falls off or gets banned/taxed so bad it's not worth it anymore (I think it already happened in brazil and it will happen in the west eventually)
Same with non perishable pantry if you ask me. If you have the space, it's a nobrainer to havea room full of pasta/toilet paper/other necessities. If it can't go bad, no reason not to stock it
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: PLA on November 06, 2024, 10:42:48 AM
A room full of pasta because buying cheap crap from aliexpress is no longer viable?
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: courdacier on November 06, 2024, 10:49:47 AM
A room full of pasta because buying cheap crap from aliexpress is no longer viable?

Maybe Joe will start carrying cheap pasta, win/win. looking forward to his pasta reviews on youtube.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on November 06, 2024, 11:16:15 AM
I'm almost debating buying two framesets, an electronic groupset and maybe some wheels.

How's this going to affect big corporations such as Amazon and Tesla? Tesla is rumored to use a large majority of Chinese made components and then shipped to the US for assembly. So basically it's just the average Joe getting screwed over?
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: courdacier on November 06, 2024, 11:23:34 AM
I'm almost debating buying two framesets, an electronic groupset and maybe some wheels.

How's this going to affect big corporations such as Amazon and Tesla? Tesla is rumored to use a large majority of Chinese made components and then shipped to the US for assembly. So basically it's just the average Joe getting screwed over?

name one tariff where the average Joe wasn't getting screwed over. it's always about value transfer from consumers to domestic or favored foreign producers
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: toxin on November 06, 2024, 11:25:08 AM
Of course, that's how it always is, the import cost will just be passed onto you and they'll probably use it as an excuse to raise prices beyond covering the tariff ccosts
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: kbernstein on November 06, 2024, 11:50:19 AM
A room full of pasta because buying cheap crap from aliexpress is no longer viable?
No i was drawing an unrelated comparison. You should have spare pasta and TP for years because prices can only rise and it won't perish anyway. Apply same logic for bike parts you are certain you will eventually need like chains, cables etc
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: bremerradkurier on November 06, 2024, 03:33:28 PM
Maybe Hecho en Mexico open mold frames and carbon wheels could become a thing.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on November 06, 2024, 08:47:14 PM
Maybe Hecho en Mexico open mold frames and carbon wheels could become a thing.

I'd totally sport an Especializado frame from Mexico!  ;D
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on November 06, 2024, 11:33:42 PM
right now everything shipped direct <$800 gets an exemption, so that has to pass first. it's already been submitted to Congress so if it passes, you'll probably pay more even while Biden is still in office. higher Trump tariffs will be on top of that.
like I said in a 11/11 thread, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. we'll be back to shopping for second hand di2 on ebay in no time, sorry //doom
I don't think that this change  will directly affect bicycle parts.   Imports that fall under Section 301, Section 201, or Section 232 trade enforcement actions are the focus of the Biden administration.  (textiles, apparel, solar panels, batteries,  certain chemicals and other restricted items.)

I may spend some time looking at bicycle clothing, and some additional camping gear for 11-11, because clothing, apparel, and textiles of any sort will no longer fall under the minimus exemption.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: bremerradkurier on November 07, 2024, 09:19:12 AM
I'd totally sport an Especializado frame from Mexico!  ;D

El Cid Tizona frame would be muy caliente.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on November 07, 2024, 09:52:17 AM
El Cid Tizona frame would be muy caliente.

Depends in if, and percentage of a tariff is applied to goods from Mexico and Canada.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on November 07, 2024, 10:39:37 AM
right now everything shipped direct <$800 gets an exemption, so that has to pass first. it's already been submitted to Congress so if it passes, you'll probably pay more even while Biden is still in office. higher Trump tariffs will be on top of that.
like I said in a 11/11 thread, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. we'll be back to shopping for second hand di2 on ebay in no time, sorry //doom

I also want to add that for bicycle parts, taking away the consumer's ability to direct/"close to direct" purchase lower cost items from manufacturers/Aliexpress stores. we are forced to go through 2 additional mark ups that really aren't a value add for the consumer.  Importers and distributors   From my perspective, these extra steps have little value add in our modern distribution system for consumers.   Used to be that distributors actually purchased, and held in inventory, large volumes of consumables that were then distributed to the retailers.  (an outcome of "lean manufacturing")   Now distributors often don't carry any significant inventories.   

There are very few "manufacturers" of bike parts in the USA.  Seems like when any of them become successful they are purchased by one of the "international Big boys" and then their manufacturing is shifted out of the country anyways.   USA distributors and importers like this system because it is easy money for them.  They lobby for exemption from tariffs and duties and get them.  Bicycle industry is less than 0.5% of our GDP, so legislators really don't care about this industry and weather or not bicycles are manufactured outside the USA.  But they blanket legislate and include this industry with others, then at a later date, give exemptions.

Edit:  I might add that "We on Chinertown"  are a very-very-very small percentage of people who build and ride their own bikes.   Most of us are unique when compared to the average consumer.   We love to purchase our own parts, build the bikes and then ride them.   This is a hobby for most of us.   Therefore, we are often penalized some way when we figure out a way to "cut-out the middlemen" to support our hobby.   The large corporations are greedy and want every penny they can squeeze out of us.

2nd edit:   As hobbies go, yes I can survive and ride only one bicycle, but because this is a hobby, I enjoy having many bikes.  If the hobby becomes to expensive relative to my lifestyle, then, yes I can ride "one marked up expensive locally purchased bike" rather then 10 hobby built bicycles.   If the cost to me to support my hobby goes up too much, then I will find a less expensive hobby.  This is one of the consequences of tariffs.  The consumer pays more, but we then make the choice to stop purchasing these items.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Sakizashi on November 11, 2024, 12:42:20 AM
I am planning to accelerate some planned purchases this week or next. I am not going to stock up on consumables though, as the tech is evolving fast enough that it doesn't matter for most items vs. their lifetime that it doesn't make sense to buy those and stash them for a year or more. (i.e., sitting on a stash of tires and chains beyond having spares on hand isn't worth it).

I don't think we will see immediate action on the blanket tariff front. HTS codes are pretty complicated, and I expect to see a lot of lobbying for special treatment. Tariffs broadly applied will be like a sales tax, i think a very aggressive selective tariff regime designed to favor specific US industries is more likely as they can also be designed to limit the impact to things that effect the perceived cost of living (e.g., food). I also think a blanket tariff on all imported goods, while legally possible via executive order, would likely go to the courts because the courts made up the "major questions doctrine" to kill Biden's student loan forgiveness, and they can expect lawsuits using that same doctrine for any blanket policy unless its a law passed by congress.

If it ends up being more of a piecemeal implementation of tariffs and they do it by codes, I am hoping that it takes a while to get around to bike parts. However, an executive order to close the de minimus limit of $800 / day for imports to be tax-free is likely to happen sooner rather than later. It's already been drafted and considered by the Biden administration. This will affect many of us who buy from places like Aliexpress or sellers shipping from direct China, as we won't find our goods coming through tariff-free. We will find that we will be paying the 25% already imposed on bike part imports—which we are already paying on most parts imported to the US from China for resale at retail. Because this does not require congress to do anything, this is possible as a day 1 type action.

Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: PLA on November 11, 2024, 07:12:11 AM
I, for one, am looking forward to support local businesses to Make America Great Again.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: courdacier on November 11, 2024, 10:08:49 AM
with all due respect, nobody's going to start making $25 12-sp cassettes in the US. that option is just going to disappear, and you'll be paying $100 like before this whole AE thing came into being. whether that's progress or not is up to you to decide.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: bremerradkurier on November 11, 2024, 10:52:17 AM
with all due respect, nobody's going to start making $25 12-sp cassettes in the US. that option is just going to disappear, and you'll be paying $100 like before this whole AE thing came into being. whether that's progress or not is up to you to decide.

60% tariff on a $25 cassette would only bring up the final price to $40; maybe we'd start seeing low $30 cassettes from Vietnam or Bangladesh.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: patmidd on November 12, 2024, 04:49:16 PM
We need to separate two separate issues—de minimis exemption and tariffs—as both will be impacted.

De minimis refers to the <$800 exemption on any tariffs for anything shipped directly to you. This exemption is part of how you get cheap stuff overall, but especially from Alixpress. So, this exemption applies to both a frame you buy from CN for $700 as well as an iPhone 15 (which ships directly from China), which currently costs $700. If de minimis goes away, then duties (tariffs) will be owed on both of those items. Further, part of the benefit of de minimis is that there are no additional fees, like a port fee or all the other random stuff, due. Stuff just gets sent directly to you with no inspections, fees, paperwork, or anything else. So the impact of removing this exemption is actually greater than the potential tariff. Aliexpress, temu, etc are fundamentally dependent on this exemption.

If de minimis goes, then your AliExpress purchase is suddenly subject to whatever tariff is in place, and whatever other processing fees would be charged for normal imports.

Tariffs are the second part. Tariffs apply to categories of goods. For instance, if you are a major bike brand, bicycles as a category (HTS Code 8712.00.15) could see a higher rate. The current rate is 11%, so let's assume that increases to 30%. The bike importer would owe that much more on each bike, which would be passed along in the form of higher prices. If you, Chinertown person, want to buy a bike frame, the HTS code is 8714.91.30. The current rate is 3.9%, but that could jump as well.

The rule of thumb for retail prices is that whatever the final sale price is, the manufacturer price is 1/4 of that. So, for a $2000 bicycle I buy at REI, I should assume that the manufacturer's cost is $500. If the tariff goes from 11% to 30%, the effective manufacturer price would increase 19%, or $95. If I apply the 4x rule, then that $2000 bike would suddenly cost $380 more. While this particular example is unlikely to occur exactly as discussed, this exact dynamic is what cranks up prices.

Why do most goods cost 4x the manufacturer's price? Because that includes the price paid for the goods, the shipping-warehousing-handling costs, overhead to run the company (customer service, offices, etc), and profit for whomever is selling the goods.

When you buy direct from CN, you are stripping almost all of those costs out except for shipping. The manufacturer gets a better deal because you paid a higher price and you skip on everything else. Most Chinese factories operate on very little margin, so the prices that you are paying are actually pretty close to what a big brand would get.

For everyone from the USA, the takeaway is that you should care most about the end of de minimis exemptions. The tariffs are important, but the real issue is that de minimis lets you skip the tariff and all the other costs.

Buy stuff now.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: PLA on November 14, 2024, 01:36:00 AM
with all due respect, nobody's going to start making $25 12-sp cassettes in the US. that option is just going to disappear, and you'll be paying $100 like before this whole AE thing came into being. whether that's progress or not is up to you to decide.

With all due respect, Making America Great Again is more important to me than poor shifting $25 cassettes.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Macedingle on November 20, 2024, 08:01:50 PM
With all due respect, Making America Great Again is more important to me than poor shifting $25 cassettes.

I love how these MAGA Trumpers are basically vegans telling you they are vegan.I swear they literally have to tell everyone how they like another man or they explode. So weird that PLA literally made his forum signature about Trump on a carbon fiber forum. This literally is a non political space lmao
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on November 23, 2024, 05:20:07 PM
I swear they literally have to tell everyone how they like another man or they explode.

What I don't get is how can someone can be pro-tariffs, but then show up to the MAGA group ride with an all-Chinese bike?  ::)

Reminds me of the "straight" guy who has a wife, but still hooks up with men, but denies being gay!  ;D
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: courdacier on December 04, 2024, 10:26:48 AM
Got myself a new TIG welder from Temu for black friday so I can MAGA harder in 2025!
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: PLA on December 19, 2024, 01:50:00 PM
I love how these MAGA Trumpers are basically vegans telling you they are vegan.I swear they literally have to tell everyone how they like another man or they explode. So weird that PLA literally made his forum signature about Trump on a carbon fiber forum. This literally is a non political space lmao

Funny how you've gone on a political rant in the space you've literally called non political. Seems like typical confused democrat hypocrisy.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: PLA on December 19, 2024, 01:55:16 PM
What I don't get is how can someone can be pro-tariffs, but then show up to the MAGA group ride with an all-Chinese bike?  ::)

I spend about half my time in shenzhen, and rock up to my group ride there on my sl7, when I'm back home like now (I'm actually saudi, not murican) I do sometimes rock up on a chinese oem frame.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Macedingle on January 01, 2025, 12:10:04 PM
Funny how you've gone on a political rant in the space you've literally called non political. Seems like typical confused democrat hypocrisy.

Is roasting by comparing you to vegans a political rant?
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on January 31, 2025, 11:11:12 PM
And so it begins...   10% tariff to be announced tomorrow.   Anyone have any information if this will apply to the $800 de minimis exemptions?   I haven't been able to find when policy changes effect the $800 exemption starts/become effective? 

I stopped ordering items from Aliexpress aver a week ago knowing that the Orange Buffoon would add a tariff on February 1st.
I am crossing my fingers that they will overlook the de minimus exemptions and bike parts wont be included.  (Yeah sure.)
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 02, 2025, 12:36:44 AM
It looks like the USA $800 de minimus exception will be eliminated soon.   I found a recent article that explains the pending changes and timing.

https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/01/cbp-proposes-to-modify-the-de-minimis-exemption

Majority of bicycle and bicycle related products fall under section 301 tariffs.   If I understand this article correctly, changes will likely be implemented some time in March.

For bicycle parts entering the USA,  we will have to pay the "existing 25% and 10% tariffs", plus the new Trump 10% tariff, for a total of 46% above what we pay for our Aliexpress items. 

Looks like I will be priced out of another hobby I enjoy.   With the added Canada and Mexico 25% tariffs, I look forward to all the inflation and price increases on food.  I really feel sorry about what will happen to the Auto industry here.   None of us common folk will be able to afford a new car.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: 00Garza on February 02, 2025, 01:48:51 PM
Damn.
Well boys and girls….it was good while it lasted.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Ludo on February 02, 2025, 02:36:00 PM
I am glad I did my MTB, gravel bike and a 24” for my son over the last 15 months. I wish I bought a full suspension mtb frame…
May pick up a second set of elite wheels or the like in stock somewhere in US before prices go up…
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 02, 2025, 11:33:51 PM
$800 de Minimus is gone.  It is official!  I've had a good run with Aliexpress.  Sorry that I will no longer be able to afford the quantity of the wonderful products I used to be able to purchase directly from China at decent prices..

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/trump-tariffs-take-aim-at-trade-loophole-used-by-temu-shein.html
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Ludo on February 03, 2025, 06:08:28 AM
Watch Chinese vendor set up shop in Singapore to go around the tariff. Don’t think supply chains won’t adapt…
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 03, 2025, 08:55:31 AM
Watch Chinese vendor set up shop in Singapore to go around the tariff. Don’t think supply chains won’t adapt…

Chinese stores setting up shop in Singapore will have to deal with the "Rules of Origin" for goods that are not wholly manufactured in Singapore.  If all sorts of new/different products start being shipped from Singapore to the USA,  this will likely be considered a breach of our tree trade agreement.   I could see this happening in a couple years, but not in the near future.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Imaginary_Chemical on February 03, 2025, 01:19:40 PM
Honestly I'm not losing sleep over a frameset which costs me $550 instead of $500, when the only available competition gets $2500 for essentially the same thing.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: mcav on February 03, 2025, 02:29:57 PM
well it's not AliExpress price + 10%.
It's actually, at least:

- 30% as specified by HTS code (as per today on every non-deminimis)
- $5 per package customs entry fee
- $10 per package carrier processing fee
- $40 customs broker fee
- 10% extra with the new EO

so expect $850 to pay for a $500 frameset
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 03, 2025, 02:42:05 PM
well it's not AliExpress price + 10%.
It's actually, at least:

- 30% as specified by HTS code (as per today on every non-deminimis)
- $5 per package customs entry fee
- $10 per package carrier processing fee
- $40 customs broker fee
- 10% extra with the new EO

so expect $850 to pay for a $500 frameset

Geeze. I thought that it will be the existing 25% Trump tariff added to the original 11% protective tariff for a total of 36%, plus the new 10% for a total of 46%   Your scenario is 6% less than what I read. What a deal!   

Edit: I just read this morning that USA farmers have been receiving 90% of the money collected from the existing 25% Tariffs.  This is because China excluded a lot of USA Agricultural products, like Soybeans.  As a result, the farmers get compensation.  The kicker is that the large farming corporations get about 70% of these subsidies.     
-  The domestic cycling manufacturing industry is so small in the USA that it contributes almost nothing to our GDP.   Therefore exclusions will be lobbied/requested, (Like the ones that expired this past August, except it will take a year or 2 to be accepted and implemented.)
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: glepore on February 03, 2025, 03:34:43 PM
The deminimus thing really hurts, because lots of stuff came in that exceeded it that cbp didn't bother with.
I ordered a 2k bike a couple weeks ago, not sure I want it if its now a 3k bike that'll get held in Customs for a month or so. Sucks.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 04, 2025, 04:47:19 PM
I was thinking today that I might as well, stop spending time reading posts on this forum.   Soon, I will no longer be able to afford my addiction to Aliexpress bicycle parts.   What fun is it to read other's stories about frames, wheels, and parts, knowing my addiction is coming to an end.

For the USA members, I have been thinking that we should start working on a Chinertown  COOP where we figure out how to make group purchases and then get our orders shipped to us after they get through customs.    I recall that someone tried this years ago, and it didn't last long. (Was it called "Group Buy?)

Luckily, I have been purchasing a lot of parts knowing this day would come. It is still painful to have to adjust my mindset and having to go back to E-bay, Facebook Market Place, Craigslist and worst of all, Amazon! in order to search for deals on bicycle parts.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: 00Garza on February 04, 2025, 07:20:39 PM
I was thinking today that I might as well, stop spending time reading posts on this forum.   Soon, I will no longer be able to afford my addiction to Aliexpress bicycle parts.   What fun is it to read other's stories about frames, wheels, and parts, knowing my addiction is coming to an end.

For the USA members, I have been thinking that we should start working on a Chinertown  COOP where we figure out how to make group purchases and then get our orders shipped to us after they get through customs.    I recall that someone tried this years ago, and it didn't last long. (Was it called "Group Buy?)

Luckily, I have been purchasing a lot of parts knowing this day would come. It is still painful to have to adjust my mindset and having to go back to E-bay, Facebook Market Place, Craigslist and worst of all, Amazon! in order to search for deals on bicycle parts.

I’m not totally giving up yet. I’ll still come here for knowledge on up and coming products and tech. I’m sure there will be companies or loop holes that come up. Or hopefully repeals or other changes made to these executive orders.
I’ll at least wait around until I start seeing exactly how this is imposed on buyers in the real world.

Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: FullCarbonAlchemist on February 04, 2025, 09:37:15 PM
All incoming USPS package shipments from China and HK suspended starting today.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Ludo on February 05, 2025, 04:42:18 AM
I hope they deliver what has already cleared custom. I have 200$ worth of stuff waiting for delivery… what a crap show
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: amacal1 on February 05, 2025, 11:01:35 AM
Well, there are 2 ways of looking at this: 1) I can't really afford any new parts from China. This is a bummer, obviously. 2) I'm sitting on a goldmine of cheap chinese cycling shit that is already sitting in my garage! Used prices on cheap chinese parts just went up 30%. This is it, boys! Our time to cash in! That backup of a backup of a backup carbon saddle that you were holding onto (just in case) but never actually fit you that well anyway? Pure gold in this economy.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 05, 2025, 11:53:16 AM
I'm glad I picked up an upgraded carbon gravel and road frame during the 11.11/BF sale. Good luck finding affordable carbon framesets now. Wear items like chains, cassettes and tires I use non-Chinese components so that should be fine. Wheeltop and LTwoo electronic groupsets won't be as lucrative from a cost perspective. SRAM will be the big winner in this.  ::)
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on February 05, 2025, 12:02:14 PM
Amazon is 50% or more AliEx/AliBaba stuff. I wonder how it affects them or other small sellers running Etsy, eBay and other private shop fronts.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: courdacier on February 05, 2025, 01:46:34 PM
I'm glad I picked up an upgraded carbon gravel and road frame during the 11.11/BF sale. Good luck finding affordable carbon framesets now. Wear items like chains, cassettes and tires I use non-Chinese components so that should be fine. Wheeltop and LTwoo electronic groupsets won't be as lucrative from a cost perspective. SRAM will be the big winner in this.  ::)

or possibly microshift sword black since it's closest to the budget ltwoo/sensah parts that doubled in price for US.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: 00Garza on February 05, 2025, 01:58:15 PM
Amazon is 50% or more AliEx/AliBaba stuff. I wonder how it affects them or other small sellers running Etsy, eBay and other private shop fronts.

I imagine this is going to crush small vendors that bulk buy from china. Or at least drastically reduce their margins. I just bought a customized valentine gift for wife...and naturally then looked if I could find it on Ali. Sure enough, it was a quarter of the price for the same exact thing with same exact customization options. Profit on that one item will be cut almost in half or more depending on how this whole tariff mess settles.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 05, 2025, 02:08:53 PM
or possibly microshift sword black since it's closest to the budget ltwoo/sensah parts that doubled in price for US.

Shimano CUEs Essa was recently announced with drop bar shifters. That will be probably be the best budget option apart from LTwoo/Sensah. Microshift seems stuck on 10 speed. At least Shimano gives you compatibility across the cassette speed range.

Now I feel my LTwoo electronic groupsets are lone unicorns. Last night I ordered some extra 14500 batteries as well. Those are probably going to shoot up in price.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 05, 2025, 02:14:34 PM
I imagine this is going to crush small vendors that bulk buy from china. Or at least drastically reduce their margins. I just bought a customized valentine gift for wife...and naturally then looked if I could find it on Ali. Sure enough, it was a quarter of the price for the same exact thing with same exact customization options. Profit on that one item will be cut almost in half or more depending on how this whole tariff mess settles.

It'll also hurt small domestic bike brands like State Bicycles and Poseidon. Even if their products are made in China, they do offer domestic support and in some cases lifetime frame warranties (with Poseidon). Businesses like Bikes Online sell Polygon bikes which I believe are made in Indonesia, so they might be in a better position.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 05, 2025, 02:25:32 PM
We, who shop on Aliexpress have to remember that a small percentage of the consumer population in the United States actually use Aliexpress.  For several years, I hadn't even heard of or read about the $800 de minimis streamlined custom process.   20+ years ago, when I owned a small bicycle business, I looked into purchasing bike parts directly from abroad.  Even back then, by the time I added up the duties, tariffs and fees for the volume of parts I wanted to import, it  ended up being more expensive than purchasing from my distributors/dealers.   
Aliexpress is/was the best thing that happened to the individual consumer, but this is being taken away from us.  The USA loves our Capitalistic system where a lot of people get a cut of items you purchase as they are passed though one hand to another.  None of these extra steps is a value add to the consumer, but we have to pay this anyways.

One of the things that has changed the whole profit system for small businesses in the domestic cost of shipping.   Used to be you would pay around 6% to 10% of the value of the items you purchased.  These days, shipping costs are sometimes 60% to 100% and more of the value of the item you want to ship!  Shipping has become a monopoly for UPS and Fedex.   

Many stores do not even hold any inventory these days.  Almost everything is dropped shipped from a warehouse directly to you or the store when you order online.   The online store gets a cut, the shippers get a cut, the warehouse gets the biggest cut, and warehouses are usually owned by a large corporation, so the profit rolls upward.

I know perhaps 1 in 50 friends that regularly used Aliexpress.  A lot of us on Chinertown are a different type of consumer.  How many people do you know that build their one bicycle?   How many cyclists have more that 2 bicycles?  In general, our government could care less about a bunch of cyclists wanting a good price on bike parts.  But the large corporations want to ring out every penny they can from us, and they are the ones setting the rules.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on February 05, 2025, 02:26:58 PM
I imagine this is going to crush small vendors that bulk buy from china. Or at least drastically reduce their margins. I just bought a customized valentine gift for wife...and naturally then looked if I could find it on Ali. Sure enough, it was a quarter of the price for the same exact thing with same exact customization options. Profit on that one item will be cut almost in half or more depending on how this whole tariff mess settles.

Was it Etsy? That platform has been ruined by sellers reselling stuff off of Ali.

I know perhaps 1 in 50 friends that regularly used Aliexpress.  A lot of us on Chinertown are a different type of consumer.  How many people do you know that build their one bicycle?   How many cyclists have more that 2 bicycles?  In general, our government could care less about a bunch of cyclists wanting a good price on bike parts.  But the large corporations want to ring out every penny they can from us, and they are the ones setting the rules.

Not a single person I know builds bikes with parts from AliExpress. Most of the people scoff at the idea of buying stuff from Chine and engage into tired old tropes like "Hope you have good dental insurance". This small population on this forum is going to suffer and there is nothing we can do. We have been sold and will be crushed in this non sensical trade war brought upon by one extremely vindictive person and his friends/lackeys and spineless congress.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: 00Garza on February 05, 2025, 03:44:44 PM
Was it Etsy? That platform has been ruined by sellers reselling stuff off of Ali.

No. But I just checked and it can be found there as well.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 06, 2025, 11:09:21 AM
Looks like people are getting whacked with charges as of today:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Aliexpress/comments/1ij3r0f/aaaagghh_getting_whacked/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/Aliexpress/comments/1ij3r0f/aaaagghh_getting_whacked/)

It was fun hanging out here while it lasted. Thank goodness this current administration closed the loophole for the working class and small businesses to buy affordable goods. It was getting out of hand since that minuscule percentage of profits belong to the billionaires of this country. ::)
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on February 06, 2025, 11:20:48 AM
Looks like people are getting whacked with charges as of today:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Aliexpress/comments/1ij3r0f/aaaagghh_getting_whacked/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/Aliexpress/comments/1ij3r0f/aaaagghh_getting_whacked/)

It was fun hanging out here while it lasted. Thank goodness this current administration closed the loophole for the working class and small businesses to buy affordable goods. It was getting out of hand since that minuscule percentage of profits belong to the billionaires of this country. ::)

Wanted to get some idea how much are the duties and HOLY MOLY

Quote
Not Ali but all the same ... being charged by UPS 170 on a 225 package. This is insane.
Quote
Just got charged 130 bucks by UPS on a AE package that shipped from China a week ago. This shit is unreal

Thanks orange baffoon.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 06, 2025, 12:26:02 PM
Wanted to get some idea how much are the duties and HOLY MOLY

Thanks orange baffoon.

I bet most Americans would be alright paying a reasonable federal + state tax (already included), but charging $170 tariff fees on a $225 package is just a big f**k you.

Not looking forward to seeing what I'll get charged on my $4 saddle bag and $13 carbon stem sitting in customs right now. My items shipped via Cainiao. I wonder if AliEx already has an online pay system implemented yet? If it gets released this week, I'll keep everyone posted. At this point any big purchases are done for.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on February 06, 2025, 12:35:17 PM
I bet most Americans would be alright paying a reasonable federal + state tax (already included), but charging $170 tariff fees on a $225 package is just a big f**k you.

Not looking forward to seeing what I'll get charged on my $4 saddle bag and $13 carbon stem sitting in customs right now. My items shipped via Cainiao. I wonder if AliEx already has an online pay system implemented yet? If it gets released this week, I'll keep everyone posted. At this point any big purchases are done for.

I have a CPU coming in that was ordered before any EO was signed. Its currently near my area but not with the final delivery center. I wonder what will happen to that. It looks like $32 is the minimum + any other duties but instructions are unclear as this has turned into a wild west.

I also have around $300 of bike parts that were shipped out just yesterday so I guess I will find out soon. I have no hopes. This might be my last purchase until the sellers on AliEx find a way out of the $800 min or the baffoon rethinks this mess with tariffs.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 06, 2025, 12:46:00 PM
Now that my AliEx gear is the high tariff category, today all my bikes appear much more premium!  ;D

Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: amacal1 on February 06, 2025, 01:07:22 PM
Literally last night I realized I misplaced my favorite cheap (Xoss) bike light. Realized that I have a couple of more things like that only costing a couple of bucks that I'd actually be bummed if I lose or if they break. I went on one last little shopping spree late last night, buying a few duplicates of super cheap things I have that have actually become favorites. Hopefully I'll receive them.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on February 06, 2025, 02:23:19 PM
You will receive them but uncle Sam will wring your arms until you cough up dough for it.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 06, 2025, 03:02:53 PM
I'd hit up Amazon for small parts. I just ordered some cheap hydraulic hoses, barbs+olives and disc brake pads. Once domestic supply dries up, restock orders will be tariff'ed up the a**.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on February 06, 2025, 04:32:55 PM
I won't be surprised if some of those strange store fronts that sell everything from bike parts to scented candle holders to lint rollers just shut shop after a while. Many of those stores are side income gig for people in regular jobs.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: hagerd on February 06, 2025, 05:54:29 PM
Meanwhile in Canada... laughing nervously. Please don't invade us. I like my cheap bike parts.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: PJW on February 07, 2025, 08:46:05 AM
Maybe this is a dumb question, but what’s the situation with shipping from China to Canada? I live close enough to Windsor that I could pick up a parcel shipped to a package receiving company. Obviously I would only do it for large purchases, but would taxes and duties be more favorable than shipping to the US?
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: hagerd on February 07, 2025, 09:06:20 AM
No situation, you order it, it shows up. Canada has import duties of 5% on frames and forks imported from China, but I've rarely had to pay them.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 07, 2025, 10:59:40 AM
Meanwhile in Canada... laughing nervously. Please don't invade us. I like my cheap bike parts.

I'm already gathering a militia to raid Canadian maple syrup facilities, procure Caramilk chocolate bars and take all the Old Dutch ketchup chips. You've been warned!  ;D ;)

Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: amacal1 on February 07, 2025, 11:35:10 AM
I'm already gathering a militia to raid Canadian maple syrup facilities, procure Caramilk chocolate bars and take all the Old Dutch ketchup chips. You've been warned!  ;D ;)

Grab me some Mars bars while you're there. Don't forget the Mars bars.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on February 07, 2025, 03:08:10 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y7edy35pvo

"Trump suspends tariffs on small packages from China"

May be of interest to the people here.
This clown plays with things in a manner I won't even attempt in a videogame. I am scared what comes tomorrow.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 07, 2025, 03:39:45 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y7edy35pvo

"Trump suspends tariffs on small packages from China"

May be of interest to the people here.
This clown plays with things in a manner I won't even attempt in a videogame. I am scared what comes tomorrow.

So we have a window to get items shipped. Maybe I might pull the trigger on some carbon wheelset and have them expedited!
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 07, 2025, 04:47:12 PM
hallelujah!!!

Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on February 07, 2025, 05:13:27 PM
So we have a window to get items shipped. Maybe I might pull the trigger on some carbon wheelset and have them expedited!

I am eyeing groupsets, 105 R7100 and EDS rim brake. I don't need them but you never know what will happen in a month (or tomorrow).
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: 00Garza on February 08, 2025, 12:59:02 PM
I'd like to get the final pieces to finish a new build, but I don't want to order and get hit with fees because policy changed by the time they get here.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 08, 2025, 01:09:09 PM
I'd like to get the final pieces to finish a new build, but I don't want to order and get hit with fees because policy changed by the time they get here.

Your safest bet is to buy items via Choice. It's now more apparent AliExpress was prepping for this, by using Choice as a way to minimize individual packages and minimize fees. There's some good info on the AliEx reddit page in regards to the shipping techniques. If buying a non-Choice item, I would ask the seller to expedite the package ASAP. There's going to be a huge backlog in merchandise as everyone is now trying to buy more product.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 10, 2025, 11:36:04 AM
Anybody get their stuff yet with the tariffs on-hold? The cheap saddlebag and stem I ordered has just been sitting in customs processing for several days according to tracking. There are few more items I want to order, but I don't want to order anything until the bottleneck clears through.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: amacal1 on February 10, 2025, 11:52:04 AM
Anybody get their stuff yet with the tariffs on-hold? The cheap saddlebag and stem I ordered has just been sitting in customs processing for several days according to tracking. There are few more items I want to order, but I don't want to order anything until the bottleneck clears through.

On which side of the border? US?

I don't know what's up. I have some domestic USPS packages that have been sitting at different regional sorting facilities for days now without any updates, which is a little unusual.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on February 10, 2025, 12:01:20 PM
Anybody get their stuff yet with the tariffs on-hold? The cheap saddlebag and stem I ordered has just been sitting in customs processing for several days according to tracking. There are few more items I want to order, but I don't want to order anything until the bottleneck clears through.

I got my AMD CPU delivered yesterday. It was sitting in LA for almost 2 weeks but came through without any surcharge.

P.S. To say delivered by a new shipping partner called Piggyship on Sunday at 9PM.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 10, 2025, 12:05:43 PM
On which side of the border? US?

I don't know what's up. I have some domestic USPS packages that have been sitting at different regional sorting facilities for days now without any updates, which is a little unusual.

US west coast. Both items are AliEx Choice items. Usually they get processed quickly and then brought to the AliEx distribution warehouse. Packages are then shipped via private courier in my area. I presume it's cheaper for them since they can just skip USPS by delivering direct.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: 00Garza on February 10, 2025, 01:45:07 PM
Your safest bet is to buy items via Choice. It's now more apparent AliExpress was prepping for this, by using Choice as a way to minimize individual packages and minimize fees. There's some good info on the AliEx reddit page in regards to the shipping techniques. If buying a non-Choice item, I would ask the seller to expedite the package ASAP. There's going to be a huge backlog in merchandise as everyone is now trying to buy more product.

Even choice items are now showing way longer delivery times than what used to be. I'm holding all Ali purchases until a more permanent or clear policy is in place. I dont' want to get hit with massive fees for bottle cages or spacers at this point.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Ludo on February 10, 2025, 02:22:34 PM
Anybody get their stuff yet with the tariffs on-hold? The cheap saddlebag and stem I ordered has just been sitting in customs processing for several days according to tracking. There are few more items I want to order, but I don't want to order anything until the bottleneck clears through.

Some of my stuff went custom cleared/with delivery company/delivered in 3-4h yesterday…
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on February 10, 2025, 02:48:01 PM
I'm holding all Ali purchases until a more permanent or clear policy is in place.

Bro what's written in constitution is up for toss now a days and being discussed in the courts. There is nothing permanent here on. Takes one tiny trigger for the guy to go haywire and ruin things.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 11, 2025, 09:39:03 AM
I've decided to pause future orders as well. My items are still stuck in customs and there's nothing I need bike related except for minor items which I can find locally.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Ludo on February 11, 2025, 10:43:03 AM
Some more of my stuff cleared custom yesterday
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 11, 2025, 10:57:54 AM
Some more of my stuff cleared custom yesterday

When did you order and which coast did your items arrive? I wonder if they're just sorting pallets by date of arrival?
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Ludo on February 11, 2025, 12:21:11 PM
Jan 26th, I am not sure port of entry, small enough that it may have been air shipped
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 11, 2025, 02:32:09 PM
All of my last batch or Aliexpress items have been received.   I have over 15, $1 off coupon E-mails, because most of my packages were delivered 2-3 days later than the Aliexpress delivery guarantee.   

I am on the fence concerning placing a few more "Choice items" hoping the timing will be before they figure out how to implement the elimination of the $800 De Minimis exemption.  (I have purchased the majority of the items on my lower cost bike part lists for 2025. )  I have really cut back my spending on everything waiting for the other shoe to drop and our economy to start crashing because of our new administration's blatant braking of laws, and Congress's letting them get away with this.  Our local small economy is already starting to feel the effects of the freeze on temp federal employees, during a key hiring period for summer workers that help keep our local National park running. (This park brings in a lot of money to our local tourist driven economy.)  Travel agencies have already stated that booked summer travel is about 15% less because of this news.  Several of our infrastructure improvement projects have been frozen, and our county is already stating these projects may not be completed, and to expect layoffs due to the this lost revenue.   

Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on February 11, 2025, 02:51:32 PM
summer workers that help keep our local National park running. (This park brings in a lot of money to our local tourist driven economy.)  Travel agencies have already stated that booked summer travel is about 15% less because of this news. 

Not just the funding freeze that is hurting but also other things that were done recently.
We were supposed to go to Glacier NP during the summer with some friends and family from Canada joining us. Last week they said FU and canceled the plan because of totally unwarranted hostility by the turd in command. Instead they will be going to Jasper now.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 11, 2025, 03:23:31 PM
Not just the funding freeze that is hurting but also other things that were done recently.
We were supposed to go to Glacier NP during the summer with some friends and family from Canada joining us. Last week they said FU and canceled the plan because of totally unwarranted hostility by the turd in command. Instead they will be going to Jasper now.
You wrote closer to how I feel and what I have been seeing, but I try to write a little more diplomatically my displeasure with what is happening.  I/we have been calling our representatives expressing our concern, and since we are in a red state, what we tell them is falling on deaf ears. (It is ironic too that my state helped vote in the current administration, but we are already suffering effects of all these sudden changes) 
Look up an app called 5calls.  Makes it really easy to contact your representatives.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 12, 2025, 09:29:33 AM
I did some more research and I found that many people who had orders arrive on Feb. 5th have still not received their packages. Though people who had packages ordered before and after that date are processing as normal. It's possible customs shelved parcels from that day until they can alleviate the backlog.

I bit the bullet and ordered some spare parts, as opposed to waiting for the next sale. I'd rather get some items in quick instead of wait next month.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: glepore on February 12, 2025, 11:51:54 AM
I did some more research and I found that many people who had orders arrive on Feb. 5th have still not received their packages. Though people who had packages ordered before and after that date are processing as normal. It's possible customs shelved parcels from that day until they can alleviate the backlog.

I bit the bullet and ordered some spare parts, as opposed to waiting for the next sale. I'd rather get some items in quick instead of wait next month.
I have a couple small items that hit customs on the 6th that haven't cleared. Other stuff in transit currently.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: amacal1 on February 12, 2025, 02:22:11 PM
Something is seriously going on with USPS on my end. I have a package I ordered on Feb 3rd from a music company known for fast shipment. It hit usps that same day and I still haven't received it. This is the 9th day, and it still isn't at my local post office so no guarantee yet that I'll get it on the 10th day. I usually get packages from that company within 3-5 days. I would think this is a fluke, if not for the other package from a different domestic company I ordered on the 4th and also isn't even at my local post office yet. Curiously, I ordered something on Sunday night and it was delivered today, so I don't know what's up. Historically, usps is pretty consistent for me.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 16, 2025, 12:25:06 PM
I haven't received my small items that arrived day of the tariffs on Feb. 5th. If they don't deliver by the promised due date (in my case Feb. 21st) I plan on cancelling those orders.

I chanced ordering another small batch of items and they quickly arrived to the US. If they clear customs, I might order a few more items for the spring sale before the de minimis gets removed again!
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: glepore on February 17, 2025, 07:40:08 AM
My stuff that arrived at NY on the 5th-6th is delayed and not tracking, but I see stuff incoming in my USPS emails from those areas now that couldn't be anything else, will know in a day or so. Suspect it got thrown in a large pile, and its been worked thru but not scanned until it reaches the next node in the system.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: 00Garza on February 17, 2025, 09:18:47 AM
Just put in an order of small Choice parts. We'll see how this goes.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 17, 2025, 11:38:48 AM
Good news. My items I ordered last week are out on delivery!  :)

The only items that are stuck, are the ones that arrived on Feb. 5th. I'm going to cancel that order once it passes the delivery due date (in a few days) to get my refund.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: glepore on February 19, 2025, 07:39:03 AM
All of my stuck stuff (except 2 tiny jockey bolts) arrived yesterday.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: amacal1 on February 19, 2025, 09:13:37 AM
My order of a handfull of "essentials" from a week or two ago is out for delivery today. Stuff still seems to be making its way here.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: GSoroos on February 19, 2025, 09:44:52 AM
Just my observation with my order: Choice items ended up in US customs Feb 5 and has never left. A couple of the items (all the choice items have the same USPS tracking number so must be packed together) in the package have had both their estimated delivery date extended out to March 1, but also the refund request time to 40 days (vs the normal 30 days).

I also had one item that wasn't a Choice item get shipped a day earlier, passed US customs on the Feb 7, and delivered on Feb 15.

Looking at this thread Feb 5 seems to be the magic date that a majority of orders that entered US customs got stuck into the black hole.

I'll be requesting my refunds as soon as I can if my order doesn't arrive.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 19, 2025, 12:01:38 PM
Just my observation with my order: Choice items ended up in US customs Feb 5 and has never left. A couple of the items (all the choice items have the same USPS tracking number so must be packed together) in the package have had both their estimated delivery date extended out to March 1, but also the refund request time to 40 days (vs the normal 30 days).

I also had one item that wasn't a Choice item get shipped a day earlier, passed US customs on the Feb 7, and delivered on Feb 15.

Looking at this thread Feb 5 seems to be the magic date that a majority of orders that entered US customs got stuck into the black hole.

I'll be requesting my refunds as soon as I can if my order doesn't arrive.

I'm bummed because I ordered a bike stem that's not on sale anymore and my order is stuck in the Feb. 5th black hole. I wonder if all that stuff is just getting dumped a landfill at this point?  :'(
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: glepore on February 19, 2025, 02:46:27 PM
I'm bummed because I ordered a bike stem that's not on sale anymore and my order is stuck in the Feb. 5th black hole. I wonder if all that stuff is just getting dumped a landfill at this point?  :'(

I don't think so. I think it created a giant backlog that is mostly getting worked thru. I got two packages yesterday from Feb 5, and they didn't scan as moving until they got local.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: GSoroos on February 19, 2025, 03:27:25 PM
I don't think so. I think it created a giant backlog that is mostly getting worked thru. I got two packages yesterday from Feb 5, and they didn't scan as moving until they got local.
This is good to know. Thanks for reporting that. Looks like there is hope.  :)
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: 00Garza on February 20, 2025, 08:54:54 AM
Last time I purchased Choice items, I got combined shipping. This time each item of the 7 items has a separate tracking number. How is choice working for you guys?
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 20, 2025, 11:59:38 AM
My Feb. 5th items finally cleared and are out for delivery. I've bought a few extra things recently, mainly because I can't source these components locally.

I wonder how much longer we have until the de minimis gets fully removed?
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: FullCarbonAlchemist on February 20, 2025, 02:28:13 PM
My Feb. 5th items finally cleared and are out for delivery. I've bought a few extra things recently, mainly because I can't source these components locally.

I wonder how much longer we have until the de minimis gets fully removed?

Supposedly a month or two while Customs prepares to do a shit ton more inspections and paperwork. But these days who knows. There’s a reason that exemption existed, because it’s just not practical to process every single little thing that comes through in personal shipments.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 21, 2025, 09:13:27 AM
I took a risk and placed a small order (<$20 total cost) Choice items. 7 small items, only one is cycling related.   Time will tell how fast and/or if the package arrives...
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 21, 2025, 11:07:17 AM
I took a risk and placed a small order (<$20 total cost) Choice items. 7 small items, only one is cycling related.   Time will tell how fast and/or if the package arrives...

It should be fast. Choice items I ordered last week have already delivered for me.

I bought a few more small items like gloves and cycling caps. I wouldn't mind ordering a lightweight gravel wheelset, but I've already ordered enough stuff to last me awhile.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: bremerradkurier on February 21, 2025, 04:05:36 PM
Ordered some choice items on Monday, they're supposedly landed in the US and at the linehaul station today.

Maybe long term we'll have a third country routing option to dodge tariffs like the Eurosphere.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: GSoroos on February 24, 2025, 03:08:15 PM
Just my observation with my order: Choice items ended up in US customs Feb 5 and has never left. A couple of the items (all the choice items have the same USPS tracking number so must be packed together) in the package have had both their estimated delivery date extended out to March 1, but also the refund request time to 40 days (vs the normal 30 days).

I also had one item that wasn't a Choice item get shipped a day earlier, passed US customs on the Feb 7, and delivered on Feb 15.

Looking at this thread Feb 5 seems to be the magic date that a majority of orders that entered US customs got stuck into the black hole.

I'll be requesting my refunds as soon as I can if my order doesn't arrive.

Finally got a USPS tracking update. Looks like DHL has it and it's on the move to get to my local postoffice.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: bremerradkurier on February 24, 2025, 04:30:46 PM
Ordered some choice items on Monday, they're supposedly landed in the US and at the linehaul station today.

Maybe long term we'll have a third country routing option to dodge tariffs like the Eurosphere.

My Choice items from the 17th were delivered to the US East Coast on the 23rd.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: amacal1 on February 25, 2025, 09:53:16 AM
My Choice items from the 17th were delivered to the US East Coast on the 23rd.

I've received a couple of small orders, some not choice, since this was all announced. Another has cleared customs and handed over to USPS for delivery in a couple days. Whatever is going on, it's apparently paused (for the moment).
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: GSoroos on February 25, 2025, 03:25:00 PM
Finally got a USPS tracking update. Looks like DHL has it and it's on the move to get to my local postoffice.
Another update: USPS has the item locally and will deliver tomorrow.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: 00Garza on February 25, 2025, 04:41:06 PM
My recent order of choice items has cleared customs. Any word on when the de minimis repeal will hit again?

Also, I did see some thing about huge tariffs being levied to ship based imports specifically.
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/us-port-charges-on-china-vessels-add-to-supply-chain-uncertainty
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 25, 2025, 06:07:40 PM
Wow!  My "10 item" Choice order had a record 2 days from order placement through Customs.  (How can China be so efficient and fast, and USPS so slow!)
Now we will see how long USPS takes to get the combined package to me. 
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 26, 2025, 09:24:52 AM
Get this, a bunch of orders said they were out for delivery, but that was 2 days. I'm beginning to wonder if the delivery driver is just sitting on the packages or something?
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: AzureEssence on February 26, 2025, 02:14:01 PM
Get this, a bunch of orders said they were out for delivery, but that was 2 days. I'm beginning to wonder if the delivery driver is just sitting on the packages or something?

He's got them in his prison wallet
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 26, 2025, 11:43:33 PM
Get this, a bunch of orders said they were out for delivery, but that was 2 days. I'm beginning to wonder if the delivery driver is just sitting on the packages or something?
I often get these messages after a package leave Customs.  Aliexpress sends me an e-mail stating the item is "out for delivery" but when I open the detailed online tracking the package is just starting its slow, often 2 week long, trip across the USA and then back to me.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 27, 2025, 01:05:12 PM
All my stuff arrived. Apparently they opted to just hold all my packages until my other orders arrived and dropped everything off at the same time. A bit strange, but again AliEx delivers!  ;D
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on February 28, 2025, 12:15:15 PM
I spent some time trying to find any information on when the $800 De Minimis exemption will be phased out.   All I still find is that it will be phased out as soon as they figure out a system to replace the present one.   

With an additional 10% tariff on top of the last 10%, I am sure that imports must be slowing down.

On a side note:  My last order I placed on February 19th arrived today.  I can state this is the fastest I have ever received a package from Aliexpress.  9 days! amazing!  I was receiving packages in 14 day, that was up from the typical 12 day delivery.

To place another order, or not.  That is the question....   Our economy will be crashing soon.  Government layoffs, inflation, interest rates, and now the large tariffs being placed on Canada and Mexico.  Time to save money to cover the pending huge price increases on our imported foods from Mexico.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on February 28, 2025, 01:52:46 PM

To place another order, or not.  That is the question....   Our economy will be crashing soon.  Government layoffs, inflation, interest rates, and now the large tariffs being placed on Canada and Mexico.  Time to save money to cover the pending huge price increases on our imported foods from Mexico.

I've gotten all the small wear items/components when the de minimis gets reinstated. That should last me for awhile. I wouldn't mind another carbon wheelset, but it's probably best I save and enjoy what I have currently!  ;)
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: AzureEssence on March 06, 2025, 09:23:24 AM
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2025/03/04/congresswoman-introduces-de-minimus-loophole-legislation

Love how this Cunanne CEO dude is trying to spin this as positive thing. Definitely a good thing FOR HIS BUSINESS. Terrible for us direct-to-consumer shoppers.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: lavistaa on March 06, 2025, 09:29:57 AM
As a manufacturer myself, she's full of shit.  This hurts EVERYONE esp small businesses and non conglomerates who can't wash their goods through 3rd countries.  Customs can't keep up with what's going on now, much less with de-minimus. She's an idiot for this.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on March 06, 2025, 09:51:56 AM
Don't get me started...  This bill isn't really needed because the De Minimis "Loophole" is already being closed as soon as Customs can figure out how to process millions of small packages per day, and collect/apply tariffs and fees without overwhelming the system.   As we all know, the bigger issue that looms are the tariff trade wars that our administration has just started.   Soon we will have to shift a fair percentage of our "fun" bicycle part money to purchasing food and other essentials that we require to live.   
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jhoff80 on March 06, 2025, 11:15:28 AM
I'm about ready to give up on my most recent order (new bars) to the US, purchased Feb 17, "arrived at facility" in ISC New York on Feb 25, and absolutely no movement since.

Trying to not talk about politics here but this trade war stuff is infuriating.

Edit:  It looks like maybe on March 8 it may have finally left NY.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on March 06, 2025, 07:47:06 PM
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2025/03/04/congresswoman-introduces-de-minimus-loophole-legislation

Love how this Cunanne CEO dude is trying to spin this as positive thing. Definitely a good thing FOR HIS BUSINESS. Terrible for us direct-to-consumer shoppers.

Is this the same congress person who's husband was indicted on theft and conspiracy charges? That tells me all I need to know when it comes to bad apples.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/8/linda-sanchez-husband-james-sullivan-indicted/ (https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/8/linda-sanchez-husband-james-sullivan-indicted/)
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: bremerradkurier on March 07, 2025, 10:32:47 AM
Is this the same congress person who's husband was indicted on theft and conspiracy charges? That tells me all I need to know when it comes to bad apples.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/8/linda-sanchez-husband-james-sullivan-indicted/ (https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/8/linda-sanchez-husband-james-sullivan-indicted/)

Distributors like ASI and QBP add a lot of empty calorie costs to brick and mortar bike stores-typically their "wholesale" groupset pricing is right around or sometimes even higher than grey market OEM pricing available D2C.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on March 07, 2025, 11:07:53 AM
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2025/03/04/congresswoman-introduces-de-minimus-loophole-legislation

Love how this Cunanne CEO dude is trying to spin this as positive thing. Definitely a good thing FOR HIS BUSINESS. Terrible for us direct-to-consumer shoppers.

"Cunnane, an industry consultant and advisor to Hyper Bicycles, also is quoted in Sánchez's press release. He is the former CEO of ASE, the parent of the Performance Bicycle retail chain and the ASI distribution business."

I looked into Hyper Bicycles, their bread-n-butter are crappy e-bikes. He's just looking to eliminate domestic and overseas competition. I wish these companies would actually try being innovated, instead of resorting to underhanded tactics.

Distributors like ASI and QBP add a lot of empty calorie costs to brick and mortar bike stores-typically their "wholesale" groupset pricing is right around or sometimes even higher than grey market OEM pricing available D2C.

D2C purchases still benefit brick-n-mortar stores. I know many cyclists will just bring their bikes in to be assembled and/or retrofitted with new parts. In fact getting parts first by the consumer might be a better avenue for the bike shops, because ordering through  "official" channels can sometimes take a long period of time. My buddy finally got his retrofitted road bike completed after 3 months in the shop. He had to wait while his "domestic" wheelset were being built and shipped...from CHINA!  ::) ;D
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: bremerradkurier on March 07, 2025, 11:51:54 AM

D2C purchases still benefit brick-n-mortar stores. I know many cyclists will just bring their bikes in to be assembled and/or retrofitted with new parts. In fact getting parts first by the consumer might be a better avenue for the bike shops, because ordering through  "official" channels can sometimes take a long period of time. My buddy finally got his retrofitted road bike completed after 3 months in the shop. He had to wait while his "domestic" wheelset were being built and shipped...from CHINA!  ::) ;D

Back when I managed a chain bike store that was taken over by Performance before their rightful demise, I had to tell a customer that no, we couldn't handle warranty fulfillment for his broken Shimano crank purchased mail order from a 3rd party.  Aside from occasional swag and entertainment, this seems to be the only possible advantage for a retailer to buy product through the official distribution chain instead of gray market OEM.

Come to think of it, maybe having your own Ali sourced and private labeled, way overpriced carbon frameset seems like a good workaround to get legit OEM product for resale.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: coffeebreak on March 07, 2025, 01:17:59 PM
Is this the same congress person who's husband was indicted on theft and conspiracy charges? That tells me all I need to know when it comes to bad apples.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/8/linda-sanchez-husband-james-sullivan-indicted/ (https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/8/linda-sanchez-husband-james-sullivan-indicted/)

As far as I am concerned every person now who's trying to paint positive picture about whatever is happening is a bad apple.

I am lucky I got all the parts I ordered in the last month but now I am done. Every day there is a new brain fart and things are tossed around like toddler playing in the sand. Its as infuriating as it is dangerous and I am now in fully "save the cash" mode whatever tht cash will be worth in coming months I am sure it will be better than some bike parts. I have stopped scouring eBay, FB Marketplace, OfferUp for used parts/frames too and trying to downsize my current stable of 8 bikes to 3.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: AzureEssence on March 10, 2025, 01:17:08 PM
As far as I am concerned every person now who's trying to paint positive picture about whatever is happening is a bad apple.

I am lucky I got all the parts I ordered in the last month but now I am done. Every day there is a new brain fart and things are tossed around like toddler playing in the sand. Its as infuriating as it is dangerous and I am now in fully "save the cash" mode whatever tht cash will be worth in coming months I am sure it will be better than some bike parts. I have stopped scouring eBay, FB Marketplace, OfferUp for used parts/frames too and trying to downsize my current stable of 8 bikes to 3.

I'm in the same boat. I had a blast building bikes while parts were cheap the past couple years. But now I'm consolidating the fleet.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: 00Garza on March 21, 2025, 09:46:03 PM
I was checking prices at Btlos wheels and got a follow up email offering a discount code and a reassurance that bike parts are not subject to tariffs.

“According to the latest U.S. customs policy, bicycle accessories are not subject to tariffs, so you can purchase them with confidence.”

Of course they didn’t site any policy. Is this just a sales pitch or does anyone have more info on this?
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: amacal1 on March 21, 2025, 10:28:40 PM
I was checking prices at Btlos wheels and got a follow up email offering a discount code and a reassurance that bike parts are not subject to tariffs.

“According to the latest U.S. customs policy, bicycle accessories are not subject to tariffs, so you can purchase them with confidence.”

Of course they didn’t site any policy. Is this just a sales pitch or does anyone have more info on this?

I've actually done a few different orders since these back-and-forth policies went into place and so far everything has been delivered fine. However, it's all been small stuff. I just ordered a whole groupset with the big discounts this week. I suppose I'll see if it ends up any different than my other "small" orders.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on March 21, 2025, 11:56:53 PM
I was checking prices at Btlos wheels and got a follow up email offering a discount code and a reassurance that bike parts are not subject to tariffs.
“According to the latest U.S. customs policy, bicycle accessories are not subject to tariffs, so you can purchase them with confidence.”
Of course they didn’t site any policy. Is this just a sales pitch or does anyone have more info on this?

Below is the latest summary I can find regarding Hs 8714 concerning bicycle parts and accessories: I interpret this as when the De Minimus ends, every item imported from China will be subject to a total of 20% tax/tariff. (Unless specific exemptions are negotiated and granted for bike parts falling under Hs 8714.)

No Specific Tariffs:
As of March 21, 2025, there are no specific tariffs or duties mentioned relating to imports of goods under HS Code 8714 from China.

General Trade Context:
While there are no specific tariffs mentioned for HS Code 8714, it's important to note that there have been broader trade actions impacting imports from China, such as the general China tariffs that were implemented in 2025.

Tariff Changes:
The 10 percent tariffs on all imports from China took effect on February 4, 2025, and Trump said the tariffs on China would increase by another 10 percent beginning March 4, which has taken effect.

De Minimis Treatment:
Ending de minimis treatment of imports from China is on pause.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Ludo on March 22, 2025, 05:32:44 AM
Indeed, the only reason why we are not taxed is because of de mininis are still not taxed. I believe simply because the system is not ready to handle the flow that’s coming in and the cost associated with doing it may be higher than the income generated….
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on March 22, 2025, 10:01:41 AM
This is a good read.    Bad actors abuse any system they can, to make a profit.   Too bad this is messing with our niche area of purchasing bike parts from Aliexpress and china. 

https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/buyer-beware-bad-actors-exploit-de-minimis-shipments
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: MrJag on March 22, 2025, 04:15:19 PM
This is a good read.    Bad actors abuse any system they can, to make a profit.   Too bad this is messing with our niche area of purchasing bike parts from Aliexpress and china. 

https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/buyer-beware-bad-actors-exploit-de-minimis-shipments

*  “On any given day, we could receive and process 750,000 to a million de minimis shipments,” said Andrew Renna, Assistant Port Director for Cargo Operations at JFK Airport. *

So nearly a million de minimis shipments a day, at JUST the JKF airport alone. They would need tens of thousands of additional employees if those packages became "formal imports" with the de minimis expiration. I have not seen any articles that allude to mass hiring for this. Instead, I've seen multiple articles of USPS cutting thousands of jobs. Rumor is that the study on how to deal with import tariffs is supposed to release on April 2nd. I just don't see any possible way they could even attempt to drop the de minimis exception at this point. Getting there will take at least a year (or years), logically.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: Tijoe on March 22, 2025, 05:37:23 PM
From what I have been reading is that they believe that the updated customs process will be based on enhancing the "CBP Entry Type 11" process for items valued less than $2500.   I've read that what they are working on is; any country that has a tariff in place will be required to prepare paperwork (all online) that will clearly state the harmonized 10 digit code for the item and pay the associated fees and tariffs upfront* before the item/s off-load to pass through CBP.  All of the Tariff required packages with pass through an updated informal type 11 process.     
The De Minimis process will remain in place for all other countries of origin that do not have trade restrictions.
(One thing I read is that they are working to figure out how to restrict 2nd and 3rd country exporters from taking packages sent from Hong Kong and China and forwarding them to the US under the guise that the items originated in their country.)  Stiff penalties if these countries are caught doing this and perhaps tariffs added to all of their exports.

* I laugh at this because the current administration will claim that China is paying for the Tariff, rather than the consumer, because the tariffs are being paid for ahead of time by the shipper/Seller.   (In reality, the buyer will pay 20%+ or more upfront for the item they purchased from an Aliexpress store.)
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: 00Garza on March 23, 2025, 05:23:53 PM
Future us.
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: jonathanf2 on March 24, 2025, 11:38:51 AM
I plan to run my Chinese carbon bikes like the Cubans and their 1950s American cars! I'll do whatever it takes to keep my bikes running through global self-isolation and societal brain rot! ;D
Title: Re: Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?
Post by: glepore on March 25, 2025, 12:11:55 PM
From what I have been reading is that they believe that the updated customs process will be based on enhancing the "CBP Entry Type 11" process for items valued less than $2500.   I've read that what they are working on is; any country that has a tariff in place will be required to prepare paperwork (all online) that will clearly state the harmonized 10 digit code for the item and pay the associated fees and tariffs upfront* before the item/s off-load to pass through CBP.  All of the Tariff required packages with pass through an updated informal type 11 process.     
The De Minimis process will remain in place for all other countries of origin that do not have trade restrictions.
(One thing I read is that they are working to figure out how to restrict 2nd and 3rd country exporters from taking packages sent from Hong Kong and China and forwarding them to the US under the guise that the items originated in their country.)  Stiff penalties if these countries are caught doing this and perhaps tariffs added to all of their exports.

* I laugh at this because the current administration will claim that China is paying for the Tariff, rather than the consumer, because the tariffs are being paid for ahead of time by the shipper/Seller.   (In reality, the buyer will pay 20%+ or more upfront for the item they purchased from an Aliexpress store.)

Keep an eye on HR 7979, which is the legislation proposed and pending in the House that would require this proceedure.