Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?

[amacal1]

'Merican friends, we can probably build you boutique bikes in France, you come ride for a week or 2, and fly back with your bike. France is now pretty much a 3rd world country, so shit's cheap
A friend of mine is an ex pro, he now owns and runs a bike shop in Jura, and we can house you too.
So, something to consider: Jura cycling holidays where you show up and your new custom bike is ready to use, then you fly back with it. You can also buy an Audemars Piguet watch while you're at it, if you have 80k to spare, they're our next door neighbors. You'd land in Geneva. It will probably rain.

Some Hong Kong company needs to steal this business model. I mean, a flight to HK can't be that cheap, but if you just consider it as part of the cost of a bike, then it's really Bike + Vacay vs. just Bike.

[bremerradkurier]

Set up Shop in switzerland so you don’t pay the 20% vat and 8% duties on import, Even cheaper.

Andorra would be more better at just 4.5% VAT, and epic riding terrain in literally every direction.

[Serge_K]

Set up Shop in switzerland so you don’t pay the 20% vat and 8% duties on import, Even cheaper.

Nothing's cheap in Switzerland

[Ludo]

Andorra would be more better at just 4.5% VAT, and epic riding terrain in literally every direction.

Getting there is more challenging though, Geneva is pretty quick

[Crash217]

Just to play devil's advocate a bit...

We know from history classes how tariff wars hastened/worsened the great depression worldwide less than a century ago; And I think many would agree that DT is mostly a figurehead tool for the GOP and its backing industrial complex to get what they want (power, money, access to resources).

So lets consider the possibility that these tariffs are a money play for the elite.

Announce tariffs = stock markets drop -> elite's buy stock.
Announce roll-backs on tariffs = stock markets rebound -> elite's make a of money.

So maybe... there is a chance most of this tariff nonsense is temporary...

[Ludo]

I sadly think you are right and this is just a mean to increase further the wealth transfer to the top 0.1%. When VAT is assimilated to a tariff barrier, you heard all you need to know about the seriousness of the justification in front of you

Many economists have already demonstrated that the stated goal, collecting tariff to do away with income tax is only a positive play for the top 20%, the 80% Will see more of expenses increase due to inflation than tax saving.

[Tijoe]

Just to play devil's advocate a bit...

We know from history classes how tariff wars hastened/worsened the great depression worldwide less than a century ago; And I think many would agree that DT is mostly a figurehead tool for the GOP and its backing industrial complex to get what they want (power, money, access to resources).

So lets consider the possibility that these tariffs are a money play for the elite.

Announce tariffs = stock markets drop -> elite's buy stock.
Announce roll-backs on tariffs = stock markets rebound -> elite's make a of money.

So maybe... there is a chance most of this tariff nonsense is temporary...

I have read this perspective, and I believe that there are people tracking activities surrounding the on-off-on-off tariffs, chomping on the bit to discover that this is true.   I believe that this is one benefit of short term gains for select individuals. 
Another consideration is that around 18% of our economy is based on foreign investors.   News feeds are only reporting some of the spin-off effects of all of the policy changes and Tariffs.   A lot of foreign investment money is quickly being removed from our country.  If most of the foreign investors bail, this alone will set the stage for a contraction of our economy.   
There is also a rapid realignment of our friends and ally countries, where they are pulling away from the USA.  This shift could/will permanently damage our ability to compete in the rest of the global economy.  (Think of Japan and South Korea aligning with China.  - Big win for China.)   Europe is banding together along with Canada and Mexico.   As a combined entity, they really don't need the USA to play with.
This means that our current path leads to us becoming an isolationist country.   In the not to distant future, we may only have Russia, Hungary and a few other countries to play with.  (What kind of government works best for isolationists? definitely not a democracy)

All of the symptoms being displayed is that the USA is an empire in decay.

[bremerradkurier]

I have read this perspective, and I believe that there are people tracking activities surrounding the on-off-on-off tariffs, chomping on the bit to discover that this is true.   I believe that this is one benefit of short term gains for select individuals. 
Another consideration is that around 18% of our economy is based on foreign investors.   News feeds are only reporting some of the spin-off effects of all of the policy changes and Tariffs.   A lot of foreign investment money is quickly being removed from our country.  If most of the foreign investors bail, this alone will set the stage for a contraction of our economy.   
There is also a rapid realignment of our friends and ally countries, where they are pulling away from the USA.  This shift could/will permanently damage our ability to compete in the rest of the global economy.  (Think of Japan and South Korea aligning with China.  - Big win for China.)   Europe is banding together along with Canada and Mexico.   As a combined entity, they really don't need the USA to play with.
This means that our current path leads to us becoming an isolationist country.   In the not to distant future, we may only have Russia, Hungary and a few other countries to play with.  (What kind of government works best for isolationists? definitely not a democracy)

All of the symptoms being displayed is that the USA is an empire in decay.

Those of us with regular 401k and Roth IRA deductions (mine are mostly in S&P 500 index funds) that kept investing through the Covid downturn have done very well five years later and are benefitting from dollar cost averaging now.   My now 24 year old son who was living at home during the Covid years was able to max out his Roth contributions for 2020 and 2021 from the $800 a week stimulus unemployment benefits, also in S&P 500 index funds, now has a substantial for his age net worth that will be well into the six figure range when he's looking to retire.

[coffeebreak]

This means that our current path leads to us becoming an isolationist country.   In the not to distant future, we may only have Russia, Hungary and a few other countries to play with.  (What kind of government works best for isolationists? definitely not a democracy)

All of the symptoms being displayed is that the USA is an empire in decay.

The billionaires running the show don't give two hoots about it as long as they are filling up their pockets.

Those of us with regular 401k and Roth IRA deductions (mine are mostly in S&P 500 index funds) that kept investing through the Covid downturn have done very well five years later and are benefitting from dollar cost averaging now.

I did so much DCA over the past 3 months I am all out of cash now. Or may be I am just poor. Honestly how many dips do you buy? We have been dipping every week. I am tired of living in "interesting times" now, please just give me some stability and days without news.

[Wet Noodle]

At least, now you can have cheap eggs.


Sorry, that was very much unnecessary.