Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?

[Ludo]

I am glad I did my MTB, gravel bike and a 24” for my son over the last 15 months. I wish I bought a full suspension mtb frame…
May pick up a second set of elite wheels or the like in stock somewhere in US before prices go up…

[Tijoe]

$800 de Minimus is gone.  It is official!  I've had a good run with Aliexpress.  Sorry that I will no longer be able to afford the quantity of the wonderful products I used to be able to purchase directly from China at decent prices..

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/trump-tariffs-take-aim-at-trade-loophole-used-by-temu-shein.html

[Ludo]

Watch Chinese vendor set up shop in Singapore to go around the tariff. Don’t think supply chains won’t adapt…

[Tijoe]

Watch Chinese vendor set up shop in Singapore to go around the tariff. Don’t think supply chains won’t adapt…

Chinese stores setting up shop in Singapore will have to deal with the "Rules of Origin" for goods that are not wholly manufactured in Singapore.  If all sorts of new/different products start being shipped from Singapore to the USA,  this will likely be considered a breach of our tree trade agreement.   I could see this happening in a couple years, but not in the near future.

[Imaginary_Chemical]

Honestly I'm not losing sleep over a frameset which costs me $550 instead of $500, when the only available competition gets $2500 for essentially the same thing.

[mcav]

well it's not AliExpress price + 10%.
It's actually, at least:

- 30% as specified by HTS code (as per today on every non-deminimis)
- $5 per package customs entry fee
- $10 per package carrier processing fee
- $40 customs broker fee
- 10% extra with the new EO

so expect $850 to pay for a $500 frameset

[Tijoe]

well it's not AliExpress price + 10%.
It's actually, at least:

- 30% as specified by HTS code (as per today on every non-deminimis)
- $5 per package customs entry fee
- $10 per package carrier processing fee
- $40 customs broker fee
- 10% extra with the new EO

so expect $850 to pay for a $500 frameset

Geeze. I thought that it will be the existing 25% Trump tariff added to the original 11% protective tariff for a total of 36%, plus the new 10% for a total of 46%   Your scenario is 6% less than what I read. What a deal!   

Edit: I just read this morning that USA farmers have been receiving 90% of the money collected from the existing 25% Tariffs.  This is because China excluded a lot of USA Agricultural products, like Soybeans.  As a result, the farmers get compensation.  The kicker is that the large farming corporations get about 70% of these subsidies.     
-  The domestic cycling manufacturing industry is so small in the USA that it contributes almost nothing to our GDP.   Therefore exclusions will be lobbied/requested, (Like the ones that expired this past August, except it will take a year or 2 to be accepted and implemented.)

[glepore]

The deminimus thing really hurts, because lots of stuff came in that exceeded it that cbp didn't bother with.
I ordered a 2k bike a couple weeks ago, not sure I want it if its now a 3k bike that'll get held in Customs for a month or so. Sucks.

[Tijoe]

I was thinking today that I might as well, stop spending time reading posts on this forum.   Soon, I will no longer be able to afford my addiction to Aliexpress bicycle parts.   What fun is it to read other's stories about frames, wheels, and parts, knowing my addiction is coming to an end.

For the USA members, I have been thinking that we should start working on a Chinertown  COOP where we figure out how to make group purchases and then get our orders shipped to us after they get through customs.    I recall that someone tried this years ago, and it didn't last long. (Was it called "Group Buy?)

Luckily, I have been purchasing a lot of parts knowing this day would come. It is still painful to have to adjust my mindset and having to go back to E-bay, Facebook Market Place, Craigslist and worst of all, Amazon! in order to search for deals on bicycle parts.

[00Garza]

I was thinking today that I might as well, stop spending time reading posts on this forum.   Soon, I will no longer be able to afford my addiction to Aliexpress bicycle parts.   What fun is it to read other's stories about frames, wheels, and parts, knowing my addiction is coming to an end.

For the USA members, I have been thinking that we should start working on a Chinertown  COOP where we figure out how to make group purchases and then get our orders shipped to us after they get through customs.    I recall that someone tried this years ago, and it didn't last long. (Was it called "Group Buy?)

Luckily, I have been purchasing a lot of parts knowing this day would come. It is still painful to have to adjust my mindset and having to go back to E-bay, Facebook Market Place, Craigslist and worst of all, Amazon! in order to search for deals on bicycle parts.

I’m not totally giving up yet. I’ll still come here for knowledge on up and coming products and tech. I’m sure there will be companies or loop holes that come up. Or hopefully repeals or other changes made to these executive orders.
I’ll at least wait around until I start seeing exactly how this is imposed on buyers in the real world.

[FullCarbonAlchemist]

All incoming USPS package shipments from China and HK suspended starting today.

[Ludo]

I hope they deliver what has already cleared custom. I have 200$ worth of stuff waiting for delivery… what a crap show

[amacal1]

Well, there are 2 ways of looking at this: 1) I can't really afford any new parts from China. This is a bummer, obviously. 2) I'm sitting on a goldmine of cheap chinese cycling shit that is already sitting in my garage! Used prices on cheap chinese parts just went up 30%. This is it, boys! Our time to cash in! That backup of a backup of a backup carbon saddle that you were holding onto (just in case) but never actually fit you that well anyway? Pure gold in this economy.

[jonathanf2]

I'm glad I picked up an upgraded carbon gravel and road frame during the 11.11/BF sale. Good luck finding affordable carbon framesets now. Wear items like chains, cassettes and tires I use non-Chinese components so that should be fine. Wheeltop and LTwoo electronic groupsets won't be as lucrative from a cost perspective. SRAM will be the big winner in this. 

[coffeebreak]

Amazon is 50% or more AliEx/AliBaba stuff. I wonder how it affects them or other small sellers running Etsy, eBay and other private shop fronts.