Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?

[jonathanf2]

On which side of the border? US?

I don't know what's up. I have some domestic USPS packages that have been sitting at different regional sorting facilities for days now without any updates, which is a little unusual.

US west coast. Both items are AliEx Choice items. Usually they get processed quickly and then brought to the AliEx distribution warehouse. Packages are then shipped via private courier in my area. I presume it's cheaper for them since they can just skip USPS by delivering direct.

[00Garza]

Your safest bet is to buy items via Choice. It's now more apparent AliExpress was prepping for this, by using Choice as a way to minimize individual packages and minimize fees. There's some good info on the AliEx reddit page in regards to the shipping techniques. If buying a non-Choice item, I would ask the seller to expedite the package ASAP. There's going to be a huge backlog in merchandise as everyone is now trying to buy more product.

Even choice items are now showing way longer delivery times than what used to be. I'm holding all Ali purchases until a more permanent or clear policy is in place. I dont' want to get hit with massive fees for bottle cages or spacers at this point.

[Ludo]

Anybody get their stuff yet with the tariffs on-hold? The cheap saddlebag and stem I ordered has just been sitting in customs processing for several days according to tracking. There are few more items I want to order, but I don't want to order anything until the bottleneck clears through.

Some of my stuff went custom cleared/with delivery company/delivered in 3-4h yesterday…

[coffeebreak]

I'm holding all Ali purchases until a more permanent or clear policy is in place.

Bro what's written in constitution is up for toss now a days and being discussed in the courts. There is nothing permanent here on. Takes one tiny trigger for the guy to go haywire and ruin things.

[jonathanf2]

I've decided to pause future orders as well. My items are still stuck in customs and there's nothing I need bike related except for minor items which I can find locally.

[Ludo]

Some more of my stuff cleared custom yesterday

[jonathanf2]

Some more of my stuff cleared custom yesterday

When did you order and which coast did your items arrive? I wonder if they're just sorting pallets by date of arrival?

[Ludo]

Jan 26th, I am not sure port of entry, small enough that it may have been air shipped

[Tijoe]

All of my last batch or Aliexpress items have been received.   I have over 15, $1 off coupon E-mails, because most of my packages were delivered 2-3 days later than the Aliexpress delivery guarantee.   

I am on the fence concerning placing a few more "Choice items" hoping the timing will be before they figure out how to implement the elimination of the $800 De Minimis exemption.  (I have purchased the majority of the items on my lower cost bike part lists for 2025. )  I have really cut back my spending on everything waiting for the other shoe to drop and our economy to start crashing because of our new administration's blatant braking of laws, and Congress's letting them get away with this.  Our local small economy is already starting to feel the effects of the freeze on temp federal employees, during a key hiring period for summer workers that help keep our local National park running. (This park brings in a lot of money to our local tourist driven economy.)  Travel agencies have already stated that booked summer travel is about 15% less because of this news.  Several of our infrastructure improvement projects have been frozen, and our county is already stating these projects may not be completed, and to expect layoffs due to the this lost revenue.   

[coffeebreak]

summer workers that help keep our local National park running. (This park brings in a lot of money to our local tourist driven economy.)  Travel agencies have already stated that booked summer travel is about 15% less because of this news. 

Not just the funding freeze that is hurting but also other things that were done recently.
We were supposed to go to Glacier NP during the summer with some friends and family from Canada joining us. Last week they said FU and canceled the plan because of totally unwarranted hostility by the turd in command. Instead they will be going to Jasper now.

[Tijoe]

Not just the funding freeze that is hurting but also other things that were done recently.
We were supposed to go to Glacier NP during the summer with some friends and family from Canada joining us. Last week they said FU and canceled the plan because of totally unwarranted hostility by the turd in command. Instead they will be going to Jasper now.

You wrote closer to how I feel and what I have been seeing, but I try to write a little more diplomatically my displeasure with what is happening.  I/we have been calling our representatives expressing our concern, and since we are in a red state, what we tell them is falling on deaf ears. (It is ironic too that my state helped vote in the current administration, but we are already suffering effects of all these sudden changes) 
Look up an app called 5calls.  Makes it really easy to contact your representatives.

[jonathanf2]

I did some more research and I found that many people who had orders arrive on Feb. 5th have still not received their packages. Though people who had packages ordered before and after that date are processing as normal. It's possible customs shelved parcels from that day until they can alleviate the backlog.

I bit the bullet and ordered some spare parts, as opposed to waiting for the next sale. I'd rather get some items in quick instead of wait next month.

[glepore]

I did some more research and I found that many people who had orders arrive on Feb. 5th have still not received their packages. Though people who had packages ordered before and after that date are processing as normal. It's possible customs shelved parcels from that day until they can alleviate the backlog.

I bit the bullet and ordered some spare parts, as opposed to waiting for the next sale. I'd rather get some items in quick instead of wait next month.

I have a couple small items that hit customs on the 6th that haven't cleared. Other stuff in transit currently.

[amacal1]

Something is seriously going on with USPS on my end. I have a package I ordered on Feb 3rd from a music company known for fast shipment. It hit usps that same day and I still haven't received it. This is the 9th day, and it still isn't at my local post office so no guarantee yet that I'll get it on the 10th day. I usually get packages from that company within 3-5 days. I would think this is a fluke, if not for the other package from a different domestic company I ordered on the 4th and also isn't even at my local post office yet. Curiously, I ordered something on Sunday night and it was delivered today, so I don't know what's up. Historically, usps is pretty consistent for me.

[jonathanf2]

I haven't received my small items that arrived day of the tariffs on Feb. 5th. If they don't deliver by the promised due date (in my case Feb. 21st) I plan on cancelling those orders.

I chanced ordering another small batch of items and they quickly arrived to the US. If they clear customs, I might order a few more items for the spring sale before the de minimis gets removed again!