The "Chiner movement"?

[Oolak]

Kind of a silly question maybe, but I have friends that own a bike shop and this topic came up the other day, so it just had me thinking about where the MTB industry as a whole is heading.

I remember when bikes direct / motobecane first came out and every since then I can guarantee the big bike brands can see it reflecting in their quarterly earnings. Bikes direct was just the kinda first step.. it and sites like it were and are basically cutting out the bike shop, but still kept the middle assembly man in the distribution channel.. Now guys that are building their bikes like on this site are cutting out the bike shop AND the assembly man from the chain.. for a better price on a bike bike built exactly as you want it. Now, of course, not everyone wants to build their own bikes or order all the parts but I think once the information is more and more distributed (like here on chinertown) and not only how fairly simple it is, but also that you get an identical quality bike for a third of the price, also that it's actually pretty fun... more and more will take that route.

I'm rambling. Do you guys think that the buying high quality carbon bike parts direct from China trend is going to be a huge market disruption in the MTB world? Judging by the fact that the couple of Chinese carbon threads on mtbr are BY FAR the most popular threads.. I'd say it's going to get bigger and bigger as the fear of chinese carbon and of doing your own build alleviates. Thoughts?

[MTB2223]

I don't think it will be a market disruption. Not everyone dare to build a own bike, only a few. Most of the people don't trust the quality of Chinese frames. They want good warranty. And when I'm looking to the people who ride races, they need good warranty, because they are abusing there bike like a way we, as normal bikers, don't do. Every time when they have a crack into their frame, they getting a new one.
Our MTB club has got 650 member (not all active) and two or three are riding a Chiner.
So, I don't think the Chines carbon frame have a big impact on the market.

It's a huge step to buy overseas, don't know the duties, the warranty, the quality.

[seat_boy]

I agree, in the grand scheme of things, I think most riders aren't even confident enough to buy a bike online from BD, much less a frame direct from overseas. They want to go to a bike shop and test ride, etc, and roll out with their new bike all ready to go.

[Sussed.]

Interesting post Oolak.

This site and the the threads on MTBR are the sole reason I built mine up.  Other people are doing it so why can't  I ?  In reply to your last question, I completely agree that DIY is only going to get more popular the more positive experiences are shared. 

Spare/replacement/ugrade parts have always been available.  Now we can add cheap Carbon frames and parts to the mix ! With this and the sheer amount of internet knowledge via forums/youtube etc it is making people more aware that self builds are achievable.

However I don't think its going to be a massive disruption, just a slight shift of needs.

Maybe less complete bikes will be sold but the LBS will still be relevant. I think I would've spent less time and money in my LBS if I had've bought a whole bike. 

As I wanted a top end spec FS I would have had to shop around to find the best price, this would have meant buying online to save money.  When you're spending a few £K a few hundred pounds discount is massive. In theory I would've bought a bike ready to ride and had little need to walk through the doors of my LBS, obviously this does not help my LBS but thats the reality.

Now I have built my own, most parts came via the internet and post due to me being abroad and I had the time to browse and purchase at a reasonable price, then it was time to assemble the bike and thats where the LBS came in. BB and cassette needed fitting, then a wheel build with a new hub.  This led to skewers, seat post clamp, stem, lights, clothing, fluids, tools etc  and most importantly advice coming from the guys working in the shop !  I now have a relationship with my LBS that I don't think I would ever of had buying a whole bike. (I doubt I would have the same relationship even if I had bought a bike through them !)

[Sitar_Ned]

I think it will continue to grow in popularity... Will the bike industry feel the squeeze? I think they will, but I'm not sure to what degree. Personalized builds I do think will become more and more popular, but even moreso.. I think we will see more people simply replacing their frames/wheels of their lbs bought bike with Chinese carbon.

Here's the Google search trend for the term "Chinese carbon bike"





Here's the same trend compared against the Google search term "Niner bikes" just to get a feel for how much growth there is available.






I don't necessarily expect the former to reach the levels of the latter, but I do think it will get a heck of a lot closer.

[pre10dr]

I also predict a growing interest in chinese frames directly imported by end users. Especially (danger rant following) once Chinese businesses  realize that proper websites with prices information and not thousands of emails sent forth and back are the way to sell stuff.

I think there will be a transformation going on. Today big company import complete bikes manufactured in china. All those bikes are the same but cheap - a wonder of mass production. In the future we will have custom bikes on the cheap ready for the end user to order.

[MTNRCKT]

I also predict a growing interest in chinese frames directly imported by end users. Especially (danger rant following) once Chinese businesses  realize that proper websites with prices information and not thousands of emails sent forth and back are the way to sell stuff.

I think there will be a transformation going on. Today big company import complete bikes manufactured in china. All those bikes are the same but cheap - a wonder of mass production. In the future we will have custom bikes on the cheap ready for the end user to order.

I agree completely. Someone is going to find a way to give the consumer exactly what they want in a more polished and marketed vehicle. Nothing but opportunity in this space, imo. It seems the Chinese businesses have the manufacturing part down, it's the marketing and presentation that needs a level up. I have no doubt about it - it will happen.

Interesting graphs SN, thanks for sharing.

[Rigid_Bloke]

Especially (danger rant following) once Chinese businesses  realize that proper websites with prices information and not thousands of emails sent forth and back are the way to sell stuff.

This times a million. It's already getting more popular DESPITE the crappy websites and language barrier. I think it will be a bigger disruption than most realize.

[Carbon_Dude]

When it comes to a $3,000+ purchase, I really think it's not going to squeeze the LBS or major manufactures that much, although we have already seen some response from the larger bicycle companies selling a line of cheaper carbon hard tail frames.  I am not sure if that is a result of the Chiner industry or pressure from other big name brands.  I would think it's the latter.  The big brands seem to work together to not undercut each other by too much and keep the large profit margins in play.

it's interesting to see a LBS knocking off $1000 on a bike that had an MSRP of $3,000, it tells me that there is still a lot of margin in the pricing structure.  Buying parts direct from China is of limited appeal to most buyers.  When making a large purchase, people want to be sure about what they are getting.  However, if two things happen:  1)  The Chinese vendors start selling complete bikes (maybe even build to order with the components you want and 2) More and more of these bikes are seen by others on the trails, the direct market will grow a bit more.  However, I can't see it growing that much even if those two items are in place since even online stores like Bikes Direct can't be taking more than a few percent of the market.

All the other cyclists that I meet locally and take to me about my bike, I tell them all the details about how much I saved and the knowledge I gained by building my own bike, so far have not built their own.  They still have gone back to a local shop when it came time for them to make their new purchase.  Only those of us that find our way to websites like Chinertown are the brave souls who want to DIY a bike and save tons of cash .

[Izzy]

I think it will grow as the Chinese companies improve their marketing and websites. Also, as people realize that it's actually pretty fun, rewarding, and far more simple than you might first assume to build your own bike.

Also, MTN bikers are all about customizing their bikes much like motor cyclists.. The enthusiasts will build to get exactly what they want. Personally, I couldn't imagine not being able to pick out all of the components separately. That's my favorite part! Of course, i realize that I am in the minority currently.

And like was already pointed out in this thread, I think lots of guys will buy chiner replacement frames and wheels (especially wheels, I think that's where the growth really will be - don't underestimate how large that market is alone) rather than just building their own bikes.

In summary - It's inevitable. The bikes/components come from China anyways. There's no reason that guys will continue to pay more to a middle man when they can save cash by cutting him out. Economics will dictate that the most efficient route will be taken, eventually.