Wanted to update my situation. I contacted Aliexpress customer service today to ask if I could wait another week for my frameset without losing my buyer's protection.
They said that my buyers protection technically expired on Jan 6, and that my request for refund would be approved in the next 48 hours. I asked if I could cancel my request and re-file in XX days if my frameset still hadn't made progress. They said yes, but strongly encouraged me to let the dispute settle now (and get my refund) with the inference being if 60 days go by and still don't have my frame, they aren't going to refund me.
I have very mixed emotions about this - shouldn't *I* get to choose how long I'm willing to wait, without giving up my buyers protection??? After all, it seems like AliX shipping is the problem here, not the seller. OTOH, maybe the AliX people know something I don't - like the frame never actually shipped, or was destroyed or lost, and they just don't want to admit that.
I don't know if I'd ever buy a frame on AliX again. It's not worth the pain/risk. Aliexpress doesn't take responsibility for their own actions/in-actions, but instead leaves their own sellers holding the bag.
Again, I think it's important to say that I'm in the U.S. Shipping large, expensive items to countries nearer to China might be more successful. Maybe that even includes Europe, but apparently not the USA.