Have you actually tried to build a model of this? Trail ends up being a secondary variable in your capsize model...
Fair points on the physics modeling.
* You are right that in a pure physics 'capsize model,' trail is just one variable among many.
* Yes, Trail is mathematically a derivative of HTA and Offset.
* We agree this is a compromise design, not necessarily a 'broken' one.
You can't just slacken the HTA without lengthening the chainstay, as you are changing the bike's weight distribution. IMO, this is usually a worse outcome than an HTA that is not the ideal number. Balancing tradeoffs is the challenge here.
Here is where I disagree. Your concern that slackening the HTA without lengthening the chainstays leads to a "worse outcome" is theoretically sound, but it is practically disproven by the market.
I compiled the geometry for the Size 61/XL equivalents of current aero-bikes. The industry consensus is actually to do exactly what you described as a negative trade-off: combine a slacker HTA (~73-73.5°) with short chainstays (~410mm).
| Bike Model (Size 61/XL) | HTA | Fork Offset | Chainstay | Trail (Approx) |
| Factor Ostro VAM | 73.3° | 43 mm | 410 mm | 57 mm |
| Canyon Aeroad CFR | 73.5° | 44 mm | 415 mm | 56 mm |
| Scott Foil RC | 73.3° | 45 mm | 412 mm | 55 mm |
| Pinarello Dogma F | 73.4° | 43 mm | 411 mm | 58 mm |
| Specialized Tarmac SL8 | 74.0° | 44 mm | 410 mm | 52 mm |
| Trek Madone Gen 8 | 73.9° | 40 mm | 412 mm | 57 mm |
| Cervélo S5 | 73.5° | 43.5 mm | 405 mm | 56 mm |
| Cannondale SuperSix | 73.0° | 45 mm | 410 mm | 57 mm |
| Bianchi Oltre RC | 73.0° | 43 mm | 412 mm | 59 mm |
| Colnago V4Rs | 73.1° | 43 mm | 408 mm | 58 mm |
| MARKET AVERAGE | 73.4° | 43.4 mm | 410.5 mm | ~56.5 mm |
(I did not cherry-pick these; these are the current flagships. If I made any mistakes, please let me know and I will edit, some figures like offset have conflicting/hard to find data).
Virtually no one (except Specialized) is running a 74° HTA on a size 61, and even Specialized pays for a custom 44mm offset fork to make it work. Everyone else slacks the head angle to ~73.4° and keeps the chainstays tight at ~410mm.
This highlights why the current FM126 is such an outlier. It tries to hold the steep HTA of the Tarmac but lacks the correct fork offset to support it. At first I didn't believe it myself. I assumed there was a compromise somewhere I was missing, but the FM126 really is the
extreme outlier here.
| Scenario | HTA | Offset | Trail | Notes |
| Current FM126 (61) | 74° | 47 mm | ~49 mm | Current Setup (Unstable outlier) |
| Ideal FM126 (Change HTA) | 73.3° | 47 mm | ~53 mm | Uses existing fork mold |
| Ideal FM126 (Change Fork) | 74° | 44 mm | ~52 mm | Requires new fork mold |
If Mondince simply slackened the HTA to 73.3 (Option 1), the bike would land almost exactly on the market averages. The resulting trail would be ~53mm—still fast and agile (similar to Factor/Pinarello), but far safer than the sub-50mm geometry they have now.
That wouldn't be a "worse outcome" for weight distribution; it would just be a normal, modern road bike.
@Sakizashi I don't want to argue for the sake of it, or have a useless discussion about choice of words. I just want to share my findings and opinions so people don't buy a cat in a bag!