Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?

[GSoroos]

Just my observation with my order: Choice items ended up in US customs Feb 5 and has never left. A couple of the items (all the choice items have the same USPS tracking number so must be packed together) in the package have had both their estimated delivery date extended out to March 1, but also the refund request time to 40 days (vs the normal 30 days).

I also had one item that wasn't a Choice item get shipped a day earlier, passed US customs on the Feb 7, and delivered on Feb 15.

Looking at this thread Feb 5 seems to be the magic date that a majority of orders that entered US customs got stuck into the black hole.

I'll be requesting my refunds as soon as I can if my order doesn't arrive.

Finally got a USPS tracking update. Looks like DHL has it and it's on the move to get to my local postoffice.

[bremerradkurier]

Ordered some choice items on Monday, they're supposedly landed in the US and at the linehaul station today.

Maybe long term we'll have a third country routing option to dodge tariffs like the Eurosphere.

My Choice items from the 17th were delivered to the US East Coast on the 23rd.

[amacal1]

My Choice items from the 17th were delivered to the US East Coast on the 23rd.

I've received a couple of small orders, some not choice, since this was all announced. Another has cleared customs and handed over to USPS for delivery in a couple days. Whatever is going on, it's apparently paused (for the moment).

[GSoroos]

Finally got a USPS tracking update. Looks like DHL has it and it's on the move to get to my local postoffice.

Another update: USPS has the item locally and will deliver tomorrow.

[00Garza]

My recent order of choice items has cleared customs. Any word on when the de minimis repeal will hit again?

Also, I did see some thing about huge tariffs being levied to ship based imports specifically.
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/us-port-charges-on-china-vessels-add-to-supply-chain-uncertainty

[Tijoe]

Wow!  My "10 item" Choice order had a record 2 days from order placement through Customs.  (How can China be so efficient and fast, and USPS so slow!)
Now we will see how long USPS takes to get the combined package to me. 

[jonathanf2]

Get this, a bunch of orders said they were out for delivery, but that was 2 days. I'm beginning to wonder if the delivery driver is just sitting on the packages or something?

[AzureEssence]

Get this, a bunch of orders said they were out for delivery, but that was 2 days. I'm beginning to wonder if the delivery driver is just sitting on the packages or something?

He's got them in his prison wallet

[Tijoe]

Get this, a bunch of orders said they were out for delivery, but that was 2 days. I'm beginning to wonder if the delivery driver is just sitting on the packages or something?

I often get these messages after a package leave Customs.  Aliexpress sends me an e-mail stating the item is "out for delivery" but when I open the detailed online tracking the package is just starting its slow, often 2 week long, trip across the USA and then back to me.

[jonathanf2]

All my stuff arrived. Apparently they opted to just hold all my packages until my other orders arrived and dropped everything off at the same time. A bit strange, but again AliEx delivers! 

[Tijoe]

I spent some time trying to find any information on when the $800 De Minimis exemption will be phased out.   All I still find is that it will be phased out as soon as they figure out a system to replace the present one.   

With an additional 10% tariff on top of the last 10%, I am sure that imports must be slowing down.

On a side note:  My last order I placed on February 19th arrived today.  I can state this is the fastest I have ever received a package from Aliexpress.  9 days! amazing!  I was receiving packages in 14 day, that was up from the typical 12 day delivery.

To place another order, or not.  That is the question....   Our economy will be crashing soon.  Government layoffs, inflation, interest rates, and now the large tariffs being placed on Canada and Mexico.  Time to save money to cover the pending huge price increases on our imported foods from Mexico.

[jonathanf2]

To place another order, or not.  That is the question....   Our economy will be crashing soon.  Government layoffs, inflation, interest rates, and now the large tariffs being placed on Canada and Mexico.  Time to save money to cover the pending huge price increases on our imported foods from Mexico.

I've gotten all the small wear items/components when the de minimis gets reinstated. That should last me for awhile. I wouldn't mind another carbon wheelset, but it's probably best I save and enjoy what I have currently! 

[AzureEssence]

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2025/03/04/congresswoman-introduces-de-minimus-loophole-legislation

Love how this Cunanne CEO dude is trying to spin this as positive thing. Definitely a good thing FOR HIS BUSINESS. Terrible for us direct-to-consumer shoppers.

[lavistaa]

As a manufacturer myself, she's full of shit.  This hurts EVERYONE esp small businesses and non conglomerates who can't wash their goods through 3rd countries.  Customs can't keep up with what's going on now, much less with de-minimus. She's an idiot for this.

[Tijoe]

Don't get me started...  This bill isn't really needed because the De Minimis "Loophole" is already being closed as soon as Customs can figure out how to process millions of small packages per day, and collect/apply tariffs and fees without overwhelming the system.   As we all know, the bigger issue that looms are the tariff trade wars that our administration has just started.   Soon we will have to shift a fair percentage of our "fun" bicycle part money to purchasing food and other essentials that we require to live.