Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?

[Tijoe]

right now everything shipped direct <$800 gets an exemption, so that has to pass first. it's already been submitted to Congress so if it passes, you'll probably pay more even while Biden is still in office. higher Trump tariffs will be on top of that.
like I said in a 11/11 thread, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. we'll be back to shopping for second hand di2 on ebay in no time, sorry //doom

I also want to add that for bicycle parts, taking away the consumer's ability to direct/"close to direct" purchase lower cost items from manufacturers/Aliexpress stores. we are forced to go through 2 additional mark ups that really aren't a value add for the consumer.  Importers and distributors   From my perspective, these extra steps have little value add in our modern distribution system for consumers.   Used to be that distributors actually purchased, and held in inventory, large volumes of consumables that were then distributed to the retailers.  (an outcome of "lean manufacturing")   Now distributors often don't carry any significant inventories.   

There are very few "manufacturers" of bike parts in the USA.  Seems like when any of them become successful they are purchased by one of the "international Big boys" and then their manufacturing is shifted out of the country anyways.   USA distributors and importers like this system because it is easy money for them.  They lobby for exemption from tariffs and duties and get them.  Bicycle industry is less than 0.5% of our GDP, so legislators really don't care about this industry and weather or not bicycles are manufactured outside the USA.  But they blanket legislate and include this industry with others, then at a later date, give exemptions.

Edit:  I might add that "We on Chinertown"  are a very-very-very small percentage of people who build and ride their own bikes.   Most of us are unique when compared to the average consumer.   We love to purchase our own parts, build the bikes and then ride them.   This is a hobby for most of us.   Therefore, we are often penalized some way when we figure out a way to "cut-out the middlemen" to support our hobby.   The large corporations are greedy and want every penny they can squeeze out of us.

2nd edit:   As hobbies go, yes I can survive and ride only one bicycle, but because this is a hobby, I enjoy having many bikes.  If the hobby becomes to expensive relative to my lifestyle, then, yes I can ride "one marked up expensive locally purchased bike" rather then 10 hobby built bicycles.   If the cost to me to support my hobby goes up too much, then I will find a less expensive hobby.  This is one of the consequences of tariffs.  The consumer pays more, but we then make the choice to stop purchasing these items.

[Sakizashi]

I am planning to accelerate some planned purchases this week or next. I am not going to stock up on consumables though, as the tech is evolving fast enough that it doesn't matter for most items vs. their lifetime that it doesn't make sense to buy those and stash them for a year or more. (i.e., sitting on a stash of tires and chains beyond having spares on hand isn't worth it).

I don't think we will see immediate action on the blanket tariff front. HTS codes are pretty complicated, and I expect to see a lot of lobbying for special treatment. Tariffs broadly applied will be like a sales tax, i think a very aggressive selective tariff regime designed to favor specific US industries is more likely as they can also be designed to limit the impact to things that effect the perceived cost of living (e.g., food). I also think a blanket tariff on all imported goods, while legally possible via executive order, would likely go to the courts because the courts made up the "major questions doctrine" to kill Biden's student loan forgiveness, and they can expect lawsuits using that same doctrine for any blanket policy unless its a law passed by congress.

If it ends up being more of a piecemeal implementation of tariffs and they do it by codes, I am hoping that it takes a while to get around to bike parts. However, an executive order to close the de minimus limit of $800 / day for imports to be tax-free is likely to happen sooner rather than later. It's already been drafted and considered by the Biden administration. This will affect many of us who buy from places like Aliexpress or sellers shipping from direct China, as we won't find our goods coming through tariff-free. We will find that we will be paying the 25% already imposed on bike part imports—which we are already paying on most parts imported to the US from China for resale at retail. Because this does not require congress to do anything, this is possible as a day 1 type action.

[PLA]

I, for one, am looking forward to support local businesses to Make America Great Again.

[courdacier]

with all due respect, nobody's going to start making $25 12-sp cassettes in the US. that option is just going to disappear, and you'll be paying $100 like before this whole AE thing came into being. whether that's progress or not is up to you to decide.

[bremerradkurier]

with all due respect, nobody's going to start making $25 12-sp cassettes in the US. that option is just going to disappear, and you'll be paying $100 like before this whole AE thing came into being. whether that's progress or not is up to you to decide.

60% tariff on a $25 cassette would only bring up the final price to $40; maybe we'd start seeing low $30 cassettes from Vietnam or Bangladesh.

[patmidd]

We need to separate two separate issues—de minimis exemption and tariffs—as both will be impacted.

De minimis refers to the <$800 exemption on any tariffs for anything shipped directly to you. This exemption is part of how you get cheap stuff overall, but especially from Alixpress. So, this exemption applies to both a frame you buy from CN for $700 as well as an iPhone 15 (which ships directly from China), which currently costs $700. If de minimis goes away, then duties (tariffs) will be owed on both of those items. Further, part of the benefit of de minimis is that there are no additional fees, like a port fee or all the other random stuff, due. Stuff just gets sent directly to you with no inspections, fees, paperwork, or anything else. So the impact of removing this exemption is actually greater than the potential tariff. Aliexpress, temu, etc are fundamentally dependent on this exemption.

If de minimis goes, then your AliExpress purchase is suddenly subject to whatever tariff is in place, and whatever other processing fees would be charged for normal imports.

Tariffs are the second part. Tariffs apply to categories of goods. For instance, if you are a major bike brand, bicycles as a category (HTS Code 8712.00.15) could see a higher rate. The current rate is 11%, so let's assume that increases to 30%. The bike importer would owe that much more on each bike, which would be passed along in the form of higher prices. If you, Chinertown person, want to buy a bike frame, the HTS code is 8714.91.30. The current rate is 3.9%, but that could jump as well.

The rule of thumb for retail prices is that whatever the final sale price is, the manufacturer price is 1/4 of that. So, for a $2000 bicycle I buy at REI, I should assume that the manufacturer's cost is $500. If the tariff goes from 11% to 30%, the effective manufacturer price would increase 19%, or $95. If I apply the 4x rule, then that $2000 bike would suddenly cost $380 more. While this particular example is unlikely to occur exactly as discussed, this exact dynamic is what cranks up prices.

Why do most goods cost 4x the manufacturer's price? Because that includes the price paid for the goods, the shipping-warehousing-handling costs, overhead to run the company (customer service, offices, etc), and profit for whomever is selling the goods.

When you buy direct from CN, you are stripping almost all of those costs out except for shipping. The manufacturer gets a better deal because you paid a higher price and you skip on everything else. Most Chinese factories operate on very little margin, so the prices that you are paying are actually pretty close to what a big brand would get.

For everyone from the USA, the takeaway is that you should care most about the end of de minimis exemptions. The tariffs are important, but the real issue is that de minimis lets you skip the tariff and all the other costs.

Buy stuff now.