Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?

[jhoff80]

I'm about ready to give up on my most recent order (new bars) to the US, purchased Feb 17, "arrived at facility" in ISC New York on Feb 25, and absolutely no movement since.

Trying to not talk about politics here but this trade war stuff is infuriating.

Edit:  It looks like maybe on March 8 it may have finally left NY.

[jonathanf2]

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2025/03/04/congresswoman-introduces-de-minimus-loophole-legislation

Love how this Cunanne CEO dude is trying to spin this as positive thing. Definitely a good thing FOR HIS BUSINESS. Terrible for us direct-to-consumer shoppers.

Is this the same congress person who's husband was indicted on theft and conspiracy charges? That tells me all I need to know when it comes to bad apples.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/8/linda-sanchez-husband-james-sullivan-indicted/

[bremerradkurier]

Is this the same congress person who's husband was indicted on theft and conspiracy charges? That tells me all I need to know when it comes to bad apples.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/8/linda-sanchez-husband-james-sullivan-indicted/

Distributors like ASI and QBP add a lot of empty calorie costs to brick and mortar bike stores-typically their "wholesale" groupset pricing is right around or sometimes even higher than grey market OEM pricing available D2C.

[jonathanf2]

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2025/03/04/congresswoman-introduces-de-minimus-loophole-legislation

Love how this Cunanne CEO dude is trying to spin this as positive thing. Definitely a good thing FOR HIS BUSINESS. Terrible for us direct-to-consumer shoppers.

"Cunnane, an industry consultant and advisor to Hyper Bicycles, also is quoted in Sánchez's press release. He is the former CEO of ASE, the parent of the Performance Bicycle retail chain and the ASI distribution business."

I looked into Hyper Bicycles, their bread-n-butter are crappy e-bikes. He's just looking to eliminate domestic and overseas competition. I wish these companies would actually try being innovated, instead of resorting to underhanded tactics.

Distributors like ASI and QBP add a lot of empty calorie costs to brick and mortar bike stores-typically their "wholesale" groupset pricing is right around or sometimes even higher than grey market OEM pricing available D2C.

D2C purchases still benefit brick-n-mortar stores. I know many cyclists will just bring their bikes in to be assembled and/or retrofitted with new parts. In fact getting parts first by the consumer might be a better avenue for the bike shops, because ordering through  "official" channels can sometimes take a long period of time. My buddy finally got his retrofitted road bike completed after 3 months in the shop. He had to wait while his "domestic" wheelset were being built and shipped...from CHINA! 

[bremerradkurier]

D2C purchases still benefit brick-n-mortar stores. I know many cyclists will just bring their bikes in to be assembled and/or retrofitted with new parts. In fact getting parts first by the consumer might be a better avenue for the bike shops, because ordering through  "official" channels can sometimes take a long period of time. My buddy finally got his retrofitted road bike completed after 3 months in the shop. He had to wait while his "domestic" wheelset were being built and shipped...from CHINA! 

Back when I managed a chain bike store that was taken over by Performance before their rightful demise, I had to tell a customer that no, we couldn't handle warranty fulfillment for his broken Shimano crank purchased mail order from a 3rd party.  Aside from occasional swag and entertainment, this seems to be the only possible advantage for a retailer to buy product through the official distribution chain instead of gray market OEM.

Come to think of it, maybe having your own Ali sourced and private labeled, way overpriced carbon frameset seems like a good workaround to get legit OEM product for resale.

[coffeebreak]

Is this the same congress person who's husband was indicted on theft and conspiracy charges? That tells me all I need to know when it comes to bad apples.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/8/linda-sanchez-husband-james-sullivan-indicted/

As far as I am concerned every person now who's trying to paint positive picture about whatever is happening is a bad apple.

I am lucky I got all the parts I ordered in the last month but now I am done. Every day there is a new brain fart and things are tossed around like toddler playing in the sand. Its as infuriating as it is dangerous and I am now in fully "save the cash" mode whatever tht cash will be worth in coming months I am sure it will be better than some bike parts. I have stopped scouring eBay, FB Marketplace, OfferUp for used parts/frames too and trying to downsize my current stable of 8 bikes to 3.

[AzureEssence]

As far as I am concerned every person now who's trying to paint positive picture about whatever is happening is a bad apple.

I am lucky I got all the parts I ordered in the last month but now I am done. Every day there is a new brain fart and things are tossed around like toddler playing in the sand. Its as infuriating as it is dangerous and I am now in fully "save the cash" mode whatever tht cash will be worth in coming months I am sure it will be better than some bike parts. I have stopped scouring eBay, FB Marketplace, OfferUp for used parts/frames too and trying to downsize my current stable of 8 bikes to 3.

I'm in the same boat. I had a blast building bikes while parts were cheap the past couple years. But now I'm consolidating the fleet.

[00Garza]

I was checking prices at Btlos wheels and got a follow up email offering a discount code and a reassurance that bike parts are not subject to tariffs.

“According to the latest U.S. customs policy, bicycle accessories are not subject to tariffs, so you can purchase them with confidence.”

Of course they didn’t site any policy. Is this just a sales pitch or does anyone have more info on this?

[amacal1]

I was checking prices at Btlos wheels and got a follow up email offering a discount code and a reassurance that bike parts are not subject to tariffs.

“According to the latest U.S. customs policy, bicycle accessories are not subject to tariffs, so you can purchase them with confidence.”

Of course they didn’t site any policy. Is this just a sales pitch or does anyone have more info on this?

I've actually done a few different orders since these back-and-forth policies went into place and so far everything has been delivered fine. However, it's all been small stuff. I just ordered a whole groupset with the big discounts this week. I suppose I'll see if it ends up any different than my other "small" orders.

[Tijoe]

I was checking prices at Btlos wheels and got a follow up email offering a discount code and a reassurance that bike parts are not subject to tariffs.
“According to the latest U.S. customs policy, bicycle accessories are not subject to tariffs, so you can purchase them with confidence.”
Of course they didn’t site any policy. Is this just a sales pitch or does anyone have more info on this?

Below is the latest summary I can find regarding Hs 8714 concerning bicycle parts and accessories: I interpret this as when the De Minimus ends, every item imported from China will be subject to a total of 20% tax/tariff. (Unless specific exemptions are negotiated and granted for bike parts falling under Hs 8714.)

No Specific Tariffs:
As of March 21, 2025, there are no specific tariffs or duties mentioned relating to imports of goods under HS Code 8714 from China.

General Trade Context:
While there are no specific tariffs mentioned for HS Code 8714, it's important to note that there have been broader trade actions impacting imports from China, such as the general China tariffs that were implemented in 2025.

Tariff Changes:
The 10 percent tariffs on all imports from China took effect on February 4, 2025, and Trump said the tariffs on China would increase by another 10 percent beginning March 4, which has taken effect.

De Minimis Treatment:
Ending de minimis treatment of imports from China is on pause.

[Ludo]

Indeed, the only reason why we are not taxed is because of de mininis are still not taxed. I believe simply because the system is not ready to handle the flow that’s coming in and the cost associated with doing it may be higher than the income generated….

[Tijoe]

This is a good read.    Bad actors abuse any system they can, to make a profit.   Too bad this is messing with our niche area of purchasing bike parts from Aliexpress and china. 

https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/buyer-beware-bad-actors-exploit-de-minimis-shipments

[MrJag]

This is a good read.    Bad actors abuse any system they can, to make a profit.   Too bad this is messing with our niche area of purchasing bike parts from Aliexpress and china. 

https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/buyer-beware-bad-actors-exploit-de-minimis-shipments

*  “On any given day, we could receive and process 750,000 to a million de minimis shipments,” said Andrew Renna, Assistant Port Director for Cargo Operations at JFK Airport. *

So nearly a million de minimis shipments a day, at JUST the JKF airport alone. They would need tens of thousands of additional employees if those packages became "formal imports" with the de minimis expiration. I have not seen any articles that allude to mass hiring for this. Instead, I've seen multiple articles of USPS cutting thousands of jobs. Rumor is that the study on how to deal with import tariffs is supposed to release on April 2nd. I just don't see any possible way they could even attempt to drop the de minimis exception at this point. Getting there will take at least a year (or years), logically.

[Tijoe]

From what I have been reading is that they believe that the updated customs process will be based on enhancing the "CBP Entry Type 11" process for items valued less than $2500.   I've read that what they are working on is; any country that has a tariff in place will be required to prepare paperwork (all online) that will clearly state the harmonized 10 digit code for the item and pay the associated fees and tariffs upfront* before the item/s off-load to pass through CBP.  All of the Tariff required packages with pass through an updated informal type 11 process.     
The De Minimis process will remain in place for all other countries of origin that do not have trade restrictions.
(One thing I read is that they are working to figure out how to restrict 2nd and 3rd country exporters from taking packages sent from Hong Kong and China and forwarding them to the US under the guise that the items originated in their country.)  Stiff penalties if these countries are caught doing this and perhaps tariffs added to all of their exports.

* I laugh at this because the current administration will claim that China is paying for the Tariff, rather than the consumer, because the tariffs are being paid for ahead of time by the shipper/Seller.   (In reality, the buyer will pay 20%+ or more upfront for the item they purchased from an Aliexpress store.)

[00Garza]

Future us.