Any thoughts on probability of 20% USA tariffs on purchases next year?

[Tijoe]

I am thinking of purchasing more consumables and a few key higher end items during the 11-11 sale because there is a high probability that next year we will have to pay a 20% tariff on all of our imported items in the USA, based on what the new administration has stated they will do.  If this really happens It will make me cut way back on many purchases.  I wont be able to afford a 20% price increase on everything that is imported and that I consume.

Thoughts? 

[courdacier]

right now everything shipped direct <$800 gets an exemption, so that has to pass first. it's already been submitted to Congress so if it passes, you'll probably pay more even while Biden is still in office. higher Trump tariffs will be on top of that.
like I said in a 11/11 thread, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. we'll be back to shopping for second hand di2 on ebay in no time, sorry //doom

[kbernstein]

I would out of principle. If it's a standard you know won't be replaced anytime soon, I'd stock up on tubes, mech hangers, cables, cleats, maybe chains... Not against trump in particular, but IMO there will be a point where either aliexpress falls off or gets banned/taxed so bad it's not worth it anymore (I think it already happened in brazil and it will happen in the west eventually)
Same with non perishable pantry if you ask me. If you have the space, it's a nobrainer to havea room full of pasta/toilet paper/other necessities. If it can't go bad, no reason not to stock it

[PLA]

A room full of pasta because buying cheap crap from aliexpress is no longer viable?

[courdacier]

A room full of pasta because buying cheap crap from aliexpress is no longer viable?

Maybe Joe will start carrying cheap pasta, win/win. looking forward to his pasta reviews on youtube.

[jonathanf2]

I'm almost debating buying two framesets, an electronic groupset and maybe some wheels.

How's this going to affect big corporations such as Amazon and Tesla? Tesla is rumored to use a large majority of Chinese made components and then shipped to the US for assembly. So basically it's just the average Joe getting screwed over?

[courdacier]

I'm almost debating buying two framesets, an electronic groupset and maybe some wheels.

How's this going to affect big corporations such as Amazon and Tesla? Tesla is rumored to use a large majority of Chinese made components and then shipped to the US for assembly. So basically it's just the average Joe getting screwed over?

name one tariff where the average Joe wasn't getting screwed over. it's always about value transfer from consumers to domestic or favored foreign producers

[toxin]

Of course, that's how it always is, the import cost will just be passed onto you and they'll probably use it as an excuse to raise prices beyond covering the tariff ccosts

[PLA]

Maybe Joe will start carrying cheap pasta, win/win. looking forward to his pasta reviews on youtube.

I heard he's got a new gig reviewing adult diapers

[kbernstein]

A room full of pasta because buying cheap crap from aliexpress is no longer viable?

No i was drawing an unrelated comparison. You should have spare pasta and TP for years because prices can only rise and it won't perish anyway. Apply same logic for bike parts you are certain you will eventually need like chains, cables etc

[bremerradkurier]

Maybe Hecho en Mexico open mold frames and carbon wheels could become a thing.

[jonathanf2]

Maybe Hecho en Mexico open mold frames and carbon wheels could become a thing.

I'd totally sport an Especializado frame from Mexico! 

[Tijoe]

right now everything shipped direct <$800 gets an exemption, so that has to pass first. it's already been submitted to Congress so if it passes, you'll probably pay more even while Biden is still in office. higher Trump tariffs will be on top of that.
like I said in a 11/11 thread, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. we'll be back to shopping for second hand di2 on ebay in no time, sorry //doom

I don't think that this change  will directly affect bicycle parts.   Imports that fall under Section 301, Section 201, or Section 232 trade enforcement actions are the focus of the Biden administration.  (textiles, apparel, solar panels, batteries,  certain chemicals and other restricted items.)

I may spend some time looking at bicycle clothing, and some additional camping gear for 11-11, because clothing, apparel, and textiles of any sort will no longer fall under the minimus exemption.

[bremerradkurier]

I'd totally sport an Especializado frame from Mexico! 

El Cid Tizona frame would be muy caliente.

[Tijoe]

El Cid Tizona frame would be muy caliente.

Depends in if, and percentage of a tariff is applied to goods from Mexico and Canada.